Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably...

27th June 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Update

Assessing French election risk for the euro

The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

A few thoughts on the yen’s latest woes

Although it’s showed little signs of it lately, we still expect the yen to rebound against the dollar.

26th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – Where next for equities, bonds and FX?

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Will hype around AI continue to fuel a US stock market rally? How are elections and monetary policy shaping the path for bond yields?

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course

Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here.

24th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets

This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three...

24th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro

Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Greenback broadly flat as DM easing cycle gathers pace

Despite more central bank policy announcements this week, most currencies fluctuated within a tight range and the dollar seems set to end the week broadly flat – boosted a bit by the release of PMI...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further

Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming...

21st June 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike

The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week...

21st June 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar ends rollercoaster week a touch stronger

The US dollar has been taken on a rollercoaster ride this week. The US CPI and PPI reports for May have suggested that price pressures are gradually easing. These somewhat promising data reports have...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

FX scarcity: will the pain point ease?

The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign...

13th June 2024 · 20 mins read

FX Markets Focus

The euro could stay lower for longer

Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies...

12th June 2024 · 14 mins read