Capital Daily Is the US dollar overvalued? The recent gains in the US dollar have left it somewhat above its “fair” value on most metrics we track, but we doubt this will prevent it from rising over the next 6-12 months. 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly BIG a non-starter, rand on the rocks, Hichilema hired The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. Meanwhile... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Some global market implications of China’s slowing growth We expect slowing economic growth in China to continue to be a headwind for commodity-linked currencies and stock markets over the next couple of years. 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of... 13th August 2021 · 11 mins read
FX We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally We expect further rises in US Treasury yields to support continued gains in the US dollar against most other developed market (DM) currencies, especially the yen and the Swiss franc. 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Three recent trends we expect to last We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. 12th August 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure Although the currencies of most commodity exporters appear undervalued in the context of high commodity prices, we still think most commodity currencies will depreciate further against the US dollar. 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally pauses as Fed & US data disappoint Following a strong run over the past month, the US dollar has weakened across the board this week after some softer-than-expected US data and a non-committal FOMC. Next week’s key data releases... 30th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
