UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Despite RBA tapering, we expect a weaker Australian dollar Despite today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to taper its asset purchases, we think the Australian dollar will weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. 7th September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Focus The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more... 7th September 2021 · 28 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains on the back foot after August payrolls The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies... 3rd September 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally reverses on dovish Powell; payrolls coming up The US dollar gave back much of its gains from last week, as appetite for risk recovered and Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech today provided some relatively dovish guidance on the path for Fed... 27th August 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fed’s inflation tolerance may lead to higher bond yields A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. 25th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies will be short-lived, and that most will fall further against the US dollar this year. 24th August 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally continues as Jackson Hole approaches The US dollar has risen sharply this week, reaching its highest level of the year as continued fears about the spread of the “delta” variant and further evidence of growing risks in China (around its... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor We think the US dollar is strong, but could rise further The US dollar remains somewhat above its “fair” value on most of the metrics we track. But its overvaluation is not extreme by historical standards, nor is that of many other currencies, and we do not... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Focus Our approach to currency valuation This Focus provides an overview of the concepts and models underpinning our new FX Markets Valuations Monitor. It is split into three sections. The first explains our framework for thinking about... 20th August 2021 · 14 mins read
