FX Markets Update We expect some further yen weakness amid rising US yields Our expectation that US Treasury yields will rise further leads us to conclude that the yen will weaken more against the dollar and we have revised up our end-year USD/JPY forecasts for both 2022 and... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Cost of FX policies rising in Nigeria, fuel price cap in SA? Evidence is building that Nigeria’s unorthodox exchange rate policies are fuelling inflation and increasingly damaging economic activity. Meanwhile, the authorities in South Africa are reportedly... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed reinforces our case for a stronger dollar Even after its broad-based appreciation today, the US dollar seems set to end the week a bit lower against most major currencies. This is somewhat surprising given the FOMC’s hawkish tone on Wednesday... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our market forecasts in light of the war We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the pound will continue to weaken against the dollar The pound gave back some of its recent gains following the BoE decision, and we think the exchange rate will continue to edge lower against the US dollar over the course of the year. 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think rising US bond yields will continue to weaken the yen The yen has been steadily weakening over recent months even during “risk-off” periods in markets, and we think that it will fall further against the US dollar over the next year or two. 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to the renminbi appear to be growing With several important factors pushing in the same direction, we continue to think that the renminbi will depreciate further against the US dollar over the remainder of this year. 15th March 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Some signs of stabilisation amid fallout from the war The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap War in Ukraine creating new trends in FX markets The war in Ukraine has generated two clear effects in FX markets: the European currencies most immediately exposed to the war and its economic fallout have fallen against the US dollar, while most... 4th March 2022 · 9 mins read
