Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen intervention may not work and benefits unclear The yen isn’t obviously undervalued so it isn’t clear whether attempts to weaken it would work. Most importantly, the Bank of Japan remains convinced that a weaker yen is beneficial for Japan’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water amid global tightening cycle Another solid gain in US payrolls did little to boost the dollar today, which seems set to end the week little changed against most major currencies. During the course of this week, central banks in... 1st April 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Stocks may lag bonds if commodities keep on surging Given that the past couple of months has seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, surging commodity prices, growing concerns about inflation, and increasingly hawkish noises from the world’s major central... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the dollar rally has stalled, not ended The rally in the dollar seems to have paused this month, and indeed the greenback has fallen against some major currencies – especially those in Europe – this month. We think this largely reflects the... 31st March 2022 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack What the war and Fed tightening could mean for EM assets As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Fed’s hawkish pivot, we have tweaked our forecasts for most major emerging market (EM) assets. The big picture, though, is that we still think EM equities... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Financial conditions as tight as after the Brexit vote The war in Ukraine has contributed to a tightening in financial conditions that will contribute to weaker GDP growth for the rest of this year and next year. Admittedly, a lot of the initial plunges... 29th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily “Safe-haven” currencies and monetary policy divergence Even though the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are widely considered to be “safe-haven” currencies, the former has fallen a lot further than the latter this month. While we doubt this divergence... 28th March 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Stage set for payrolls to renew the rally in the dollar Amid the broad-based “risk-on” tone in markets this week, the US dollar has edged down against most major currencies. As was the case last week, an increasingly hawkish tone by the Fed and a rise in... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo unnerves, BCB outlook, new FX forecasts Yesterday’s comment by Mexican President López Obrador that Banxico would raise its policy rate by 50bp, four hours before the official decision, is not a big deal in itself. But it adds to the sense... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think Latam currencies will give up some recent gains Following their strong appreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year, we expect Latam currencies in general to reverse some of their gains over the remainder of 2022. 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Fundamentals continue to underpin dollar strength We estimate that, on balance, the US dollar’s “fair value” has risen alongside an appreciation of the greenback against most major currencies. This increase in fair value largely reflects the relative... 25th March 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee-ruble exchange, virus restrictions lifted Indian authorities are in advanced discussions with their Russian counterparts over a rupee-ruble exchange system that would enable the two countries to continue trading even as Russia gets blocked... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
