Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets too sanguine on interest rates Our new forecasts that inflation will stay higher for longer and that the labour market will remain tight into 2023 suggests that Bank Rate will rise to a peak of 3.00% next year rather than the peak... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s new lows We wouldn’t be surprised if the yen fell further against most major currencies but doubt this would give the country’s equity market a relative boost, in common-currency terms at least. 28th April 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rises further and the renminbi (finally) falls Another week of broad-based appreciation has seen the US dollar edge higher even as US bond yields have stalled. Instead, it is the sell-off in equity markets over the past couple of days which has... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics The yen’s depreciation has further to run We think the yen will drop even further as policy divergence widens. We now forecast USD/JPY to reach 140 by the end of this year, before dropping back as the Fed takes its foot off the gas in 2023... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh yen & bond market turmoil, poor growth outlook The Bank of Japan had to step in yet again to defend its 10-year yield target this week, but it didn’t have to go to the same lengths as in late-March to keep yields in check. With yields nailed to... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s drop and intervention chatter While it has stabilised today, the ~10% depreciation of the Japanese yen over the past month or so is extraordinary. With some policymakers now hinting at FX intervention to stem the currency’s slide... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher in line with US Treasury yields The US dollar continued to edge higher against most major currencies, with the DXY index (and 10-year US Treasury yields) reaching a new high for the year. The renewed rise in Treasury yields today... 14th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to reverse some of its gains The sharp rally in the Brazilian real against the US dollar since the start of the year has shown tentative signs of ending, and we think that it will weaken a bit through the end of 2022. In view of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ: A kiwi in a coalmine? While today’s 50bp policy rate hikes from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada point to the aggressiveness of the global monetary tightening cycle now underway, the market reaction to their announcements... 13th April 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Le Pen & sanction risk put euro under more pressure The US dollar has risen across the board this week as the Fed’s hawkish message on “quantitative tightening”, renewed sanction risks in Europe, and the polling shift in favour of far-right candidate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect the rally in the Brazilian real is nearing its end This week the Brazilian real has reversed some of its rally against the US dollar, and we think there is scope for it to weaken a bit further this year. 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Large current account surplus not a thing of the past Surging import prices and depressed services exports have shrunk down Japan’s current account surplus to near zero over the past year. However, we expect a large surplus to return over the next couple... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
