Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB, the Fed, and the euro The hawkish tone of the latest flurry of ECB and Fed speakers suggests that, despite the recent drop in equity markets and widening of credit spreads, policymakers are determined to press ahead with... 18th May 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar rally might be due a pause Despite a reversal today, the US dollar looks set to appreciate for the sixth week running as “risky” assets remain under pressure. The DXY index has had its largest six-week gain since mid-2016... 13th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds We think that currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will depreciate further against the euro over the rest of this year. Within the region, we anticipate that the koruna will continue to... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar, risk sentiment, and high-beta currencies Even if the current rout in the US stock market worsened and caused the Fed to reassess how much additional monetary tightening is necessary, we suspect the US dollar would stay strong amid heightened... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What this week’s Fed decisions mean for markets With more monetary tightening to come from the Fed, we think the rise in Treasury yields has further to run and that equities will continue to struggle. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen will help lift underlying inflation to 2% The pass-through of higher import costs resulting from the weaker yen and soaring energy prices will lift underlying inflation close to the BoJ’s 2% target by the end of the year. However, with wage... 4th May 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Outlook The next stage of the dollar bull market The combination of aggressive tightening from the Fed and worsening risk appetite has driven the dollar to its strongest level, in aggregate, since the early 2000s. While the greenback looks due a... 29th April 2022 · 23 mins read
