Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US rates bigger worry for EMs than Turkey contagion Turkey’s currency crisis – the lira is down another ~11% against the US dollar today, and ~35% in two months – is now reaching a scale where it raises the question of how badly it will affect other... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis With the Turkish lira down by 9% so far today and 20% over the past week, the currency is now firmly in crisis territory. Higher inflation and tighter domestic financial conditions are likely to sap... 23rd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation... 22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of potential corporate tax reforms This Update answers several questions on the Biden administration’s latest proposals for US corporate taxes as well as the global tax deal recently agreed among the world’s major economies. The... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Continued dollar rally looks increasingly likely The US dollar is set to end another week higher against nearly all major currencies. To a large extent, this latest rally appears to be driven by the rise in short-term government bond yields in the... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to put more pressure on the lira The Turkish lira has continued to plummet after Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a further 100bp cut to the one-week repo rate today. We think that continued political pressure will lead to... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey and EM contagion risks The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble There has been no let up for the Turkish lira today and all eyes are turning to the central bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Policymakers’ increased tolerance to falls in the lira as well as... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
