FX Markets Update Fed’s “QT” supports our case for a stronger US dollar While we doubt it will be the main driver of the US dollar, the ongoing reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., “quantitative tightening”, or “QT”) adds to our conviction that the... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect pressure on JGBs and the yen to continue The BoJ’s tolerance band for 10-year government bond yields is under pressure again as US Treasury yields rise. We think continued policy divergence will mean that the Japanese yen weakens further... 8th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think a hawkish RBA will continue to support the AUD Although we doubt it will appreciate much against the US dollar, we expect the Australian dollar to continue to hold up well relative to most other G10 currencies. 7th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update We think the renminbi will fall further While it has rebounded over the past couple of weeks, we expect the renminbi to resume its fall against the US dollar as China’s economy underwhelms, interest rate differentials continue to shift... 1st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost The EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be painful for Russia, but it won't be a disaster for as long as commodity prices remain high and Russia can export... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM sovereign bond yields will resume their rise While the yields of emerging market local-currency and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have dropped back in recent weeks, we expect them to resume their rise before long. US Payrolls Drop-In (3 rd... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We doubt near-term headwinds for the dollar will last The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most major currencies, a third successive weekly decline, and a drop of ~3% in the DXY index from its multi-year high earlier this month. In part... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the dollar rally will eventually resume While the US dollar has fallen back over the past couple of weeks after a strong run, we think that the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s appreciation this year remain in place. 27th May 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Stagflation stalking the markets If we are right in expecting inflationary pressure to stay strong even as the economy gets dangerously close to a recession, then the prices of gilts and UK equities will probably fall further over... 26th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese stimulus may not save the day this time around China’s policymakers have had a busy few weeks. Between the ongoing lockdown policy, the depreciation of the renminbi, and the various fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that have been rolled out... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The relationship between the US dollar and the stock market We anticipate a renewed rally in the US dollar and further declines in US equity prices over the next twelve months or so. 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar struggles despite equity sell-off After another volatile few days across financial markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. Given the renewed falls in “risky” assets, that is arguably... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Markets are creaking but not (yet) breaking So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
