Capital Daily Dollar drop is at odds with increasingly hawkish Fed The US dollar has started the year on the backfoot and there are several factors that may weigh on it further in the near term. But we think that the Fed’s increasingly rapid shift towards a tighter... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Key financial market calls for 2022 We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yields to support further USD strength before long Although the recent surge in US government bond yields has made little impact on the US dollar, which has been broadly flat over the past month or so, we still think that widening yield differentials... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key calls for Emerging Europe in 2022 We think GDP growth will come in below expectations this year. Even so, inflation will ultimately settle at a higher level than is currently appreciated and this feeds into our hawkish interest rate... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Slow start to 2022 for FX markets ahead of US inflation Today’s US non-farm payrolls report had little impact on currency markets, with the dollar set to end the week broadly unchanged against most other currencies. This extends a pattern of low volatility... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022 We expect GDP to grow strongly once the current restrictions are eased, but we are sceptical that either GDP growth or inflation will be as high this year as widely anticipated. This leads us to think... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key questions for currency markets in 2022 Four central themes in currency markets this year have been the US dollar’s steady grind higher since June, the underperformance of other safe-haven currencies, the remarkable stability of the USD/CNY... 20th December 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Game of two halves ends with a whimper, not a bang This week’s much-anticipated round of central bank policy announcements made only limited impact on currency markets, which for the most part are broadly unchanged on the week. Indeed, despite the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the rally in the dollar to continue in 2022 While the dollar has not made much further headway this month, despite the Fed’s hawkish message at its latest policy meeting, we think the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s rally – the... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Dollar strength hasn’t pushed its valuation to extremes The recent rally in the US dollar has been driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies and a favourable shift in yield differentials, leaving the greenback only... 17th December 2021 · 10 mins read
