FX Markets Update Revising down our forecasts for riskier currencies With the outlook for the global economy worsening further and the Fed still on the war path, we have revised down our forecasts for many G10 “high-beta” currencies and several EM currencies. Asia Drop... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts to struggle sooner, equities to struggle for longer We haven’t changed our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00% by the middle of next year. But we do now think that a number of other central... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ policy, Egypt’s orthodox shift and FY22/23 budget Next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting may drop some hints about the future for the group's oil output beyond September and we think that quotas are likely to be lifted. If that’s the case, the Gulf economies... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think headwinds to sterling are growing We expect the pound to weaken further against the US dollar over the rest of 2022 as the BoE fails to keep pace with the Fed’s tightening cycle and appetite for risk continues to weaken. 22nd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Epic central bank week ends in a draw on the FX front Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Market turmoil tests RBI’s appetite for FX intervention Although the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar this week amid a broad-based sell-off in global financial markets, it held up better than most other EM currencies. That’s probably down... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the sharp falls in the lira have much further to run The Turkish lira is once again depreciating sharply against the US dollar and we expect this to continue. We revise our forecasts for the lira and pencil in further substantial weakness by the end of... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Souring risk sentiment reignites the dollar rally The US dollar rose against all major currencies this week, reversing some of its fall over the past month or so. Much of this strength came late in the week as equity markets came under renewed... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key points on the renminbi’s spillovers to EM currencies While the spillovers from the renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar over the past two months have in some ways been similar to previous periods of renminbi weakness, the impact on other... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
