Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar? We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of PM Johnson’s possible departure We suspect that, at the margin, the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, a further fall in the pound, and continued weakness in... 6th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Euro and euro-zone assets likely to remain under pressure Euro-zone assets and the euro have come under significant pressure recently as concerns about Europe’s energy supplies have intensified. While we think it would take a significant further... 5th July 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Safe-haven flows drive the dollar higher The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies, nearing its strongest level since 2002 as “risky” assets remained under pressure. A key reason for the dollar’s rally is... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue trending higher While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will... 30th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Mounting growth concerns leave few places to hide The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We think the dollar rally has paused, not ended Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
