Asset Allocation Outlook Higher bond yields more headwind than hurricane Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets... 31st January 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish FOMC meeting provides a boost to the dollar The trade-weighted US dollar reached its highest level since July 2020 this week after short-term rate differentials moved strongly in its favour following Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC meeting. 28th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Fed tightening to push US yields and the USD higher The FOMC’s latest policy announcement reinforces our view that strong underlying inflationary pressures in the US will prompt a sustained tightening cycle, which we think will drive US Treasury yields... 27th January 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies will weaken despite rate hikes We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think emerging market currencies will generally fall from here Although emerging market currencies have held up surprisingly well so far this year amid the volatility in global equity markets, we think they will weaken in general against the US dollar before too... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed guidance could revive the rally in the US dollar The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US... 21st January 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect the dollar bull market to continue Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key... 20th January 2022 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond... 18th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our outlook for fx-hedged returns in 2022 When it comes to developed markets (DMs), we suspect that fx-hedged returns will be significantly better than unhedged returns for US dollar-based investors in foreign-currency-denominated assets. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
