Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Markets right to bet on interest rates peaking at 2.00% Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate... 24th February 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar see-saws on Ukraine risk & FOMC minutes Although it has rebounded today, the US dollar lost a little ground against most major currencies over the week as a whole, as the FOMC minutes prompted a scaling back of market expectations for Fed... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM FX debt risks With FX debt burdens relatively low in most major EMs, the risk of debt crises triggered by rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar looks limited. Vulnerabilities are generally limited to... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update The strength in EM commodity currencies may prove fleeting Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar stays dormant amid surging short-term yields The US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies despite a favourable shift in government bond yield differentials. While we suspect there is limited scope for a... 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Relative equity performance and the US dollar Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The ECB strikes back & US payrolls surprise A week after the FOMC’s hawkish message sent the US dollar soaring, the ECB delivered an even bigger surprise at yesterday’s policy meeting by opening the door to policy rate hikes later this year... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the prospects for EM currencies We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Assessing the relative valuations of EM equities Emerging market equities’ relatively low valuations may continue to hold them in better stead than equities in the US, but we think they will do less well compared to other developed market equities. 1st February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Currency market calm & dollar stability may not last Amid a turbulent start to the year in bond and equity markets, currency markets have remained relatively calm, and the US dollar has not gained much despite the FOMC’s increasingly hawkish stance. We... 1st February 2022 · 7 mins read
