Capital Daily We think the pound will continue to weaken against the dollar The pound gave back some of its recent gains following the BoE decision, and we think the exchange rate will continue to edge lower against the US dollar over the course of the year. 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think rising US bond yields will continue to weaken the yen The yen has been steadily weakening over recent months even during “risk-off” periods in markets, and we think that it will fall further against the US dollar over the next year or two. 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to the renminbi appear to be growing With several important factors pushing in the same direction, we continue to think that the renminbi will depreciate further against the US dollar over the remainder of this year. 15th March 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Some signs of stabilisation amid fallout from the war The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap War in Ukraine creating new trends in FX markets The war in Ukraine has generated two clear effects in FX markets: the European currencies most immediately exposed to the war and its economic fallout have fallen against the US dollar, while most... 4th March 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Finland exposed; Swiss franc on cusp of euro parity As we argued only last week, the SNB has so far been willing to let the franc rise against the euro. However, policymakers’ tolerance would surely be tested if the franc were to push through the... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Some signs of strains in markets but no panic yet In light of the growing economic and financial fallout from the war in Ukraine, this publication takes stock of the various signs of stress across the global financial system. We intend to update the... 3rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Commodity prices, monetary policy expectations, & FX markets So far, the war in Ukraine has had relatively little impact on FX markets. But the knock-on effects from commodity prices and monetary policy suggest to us that the downside risks for European... 3rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Putin’s war scrambles markets & sends ruble tumbling The Russian invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday morning has, aside from the ruble, so far made only limited impact on currency markets. The US dollar and other safe havens rose sharply on news of... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
