FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar falters on continued risk-on rally The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although we think the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is drawing nearer and that yields of long-term US Treasuries have already peaked for this cycle, we don’t believe this necessarily spells the end of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Increased risk of “second-round” effects We’ve been warning for some time that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect, triggering a recession. The prospect of even bigger rises in utility prices on 1 st October and in the... 10th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies as hope for a Fed pivot proves short-lived The huge upside surprise in US payrolls data pushed the greenback higher against most major currencies today in an otherwise quiet week for FX markets. The continued strength of the labour market in... 5th August 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar rally still has further to run We think the dollar will appreciate further through at least the end of the year as the global economy continues to falter and “safe-haven” demand remains strong. Although we see limited scope for a... 4th August 2022 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB brings its tightening cycle to an end The Czech National Bank became the first major EM central bank to end its tightening cycle after it left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today. The communications were not as dovish as we had... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We think the latest asset price rallies will prove short-lived We doubt the recent rallies in global bond and equity markets will be sustained over the remainder of the year. While we no longer think the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed its June peak, we... 3rd August 2022 · 30 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although the US dollar has faltered over the past couple of weeks, we doubt its bull run is over. 2nd August 2022 · 5 mins read
