EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s drop and intervention chatter While it has stabilised today, the ~10% depreciation of the Japanese yen over the past month or so is extraordinary. With some policymakers now hinting at FX intervention to stem the currency’s slide... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher in line with US Treasury yields The US dollar continued to edge higher against most major currencies, with the DXY index (and 10-year US Treasury yields) reaching a new high for the year. The renewed rise in Treasury yields today... 14th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New policy support, CA deficits, Turkey FX conversion Governments in Central and Eastern Europe stepped up support this week for firms and households against surging inflation, but we don't think they will prevent some economies from contracting in Q2... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to reverse some of its gains The sharp rally in the Brazilian real against the US dollar since the start of the year has shown tentative signs of ending, and we think that it will weaken a bit through the end of 2022. In view of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ: A kiwi in a coalmine? While today’s 50bp policy rate hikes from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada point to the aggressiveness of the global monetary tightening cycle now underway, the market reaction to their announcements... 13th April 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Le Pen & sanction risk put euro under more pressure The US dollar has risen across the board this week as the Fed’s hawkish message on “quantitative tightening”, renewed sanction risks in Europe, and the polling shift in favour of far-right candidate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect the rally in the Brazilian real is nearing its end This week the Brazilian real has reversed some of its rally against the US dollar, and we think there is scope for it to weaken a bit further this year. 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Large current account surplus not a thing of the past Surging import prices and depressed services exports have shrunk down Japan’s current account surplus to near zero over the past year. However, we expect a large surplus to return over the next couple... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen intervention may not work and benefits unclear The yen isn’t obviously undervalued so it isn’t clear whether attempts to weaken it would work. Most importantly, the Bank of Japan remains convinced that a weaker yen is beneficial for Japan’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water amid global tightening cycle Another solid gain in US payrolls did little to boost the dollar today, which seems set to end the week little changed against most major currencies. During the course of this week, central banks in... 1st April 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Stocks may lag bonds if commodities keep on surging Given that the past couple of months has seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, surging commodity prices, growing concerns about inflation, and increasingly hawkish noises from the world’s major central... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
