Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidation for now; yen rally likely to continue The US dollar has finally hit a speedbump this week, with the DXY index registering its first weekly drop since late September. Given the continued resilience of the US economy – we expect next week’s... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a... 27th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Downbeat prospects for Latin America regardless of Trump Latin American (LatAm) markets have been generally resilient in the aftermath of the US election, possibly because investors were already pessimistic about the region’s prospects. But we think... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (First Round) The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar goes from strength to strength The US dollar has rallied further this week as investors have continued to price in the implications of a second Trump term and digest weak economic data in key trading partners. This rally has taken... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of the US election fallout With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
