FX Markets Chart Pack We don’t think the US dollar has peaked yet While the dollar has dropped back sharply over the past week, we continue to think that its rally has further to run as the global economy slows further and safe-have demand intensifies. 4th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Policy U-turns unlikely to take the pressure off the pound Even though recent developments in the UK may have provided some reassurance to investors and helped sterling to recover, we think that the deteriorating global economic outlook will ensure that the... 3rd October 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Intervention stems the dollar tide for now; US payrolls ahead During yet another tumultuous week in financial markets, the dollar has dropped back over the past couple of days after intervention by the BoE (in the gilt market) and the PBOC (in the renminbi)... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ risks turmoil even if governments stay responsible While we don’t expect euro-zone governments to engage in UK-style large discretionary fiscal loosening, Italy’s weak public finances and/or the ECB’s likely reluctance to intervene in government bond... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets at risk of more government-induced turmoil The Bank of England appears to have prevented the financial market fallout from the loose fiscal plans revealed in the Chancellor’s mini-budget from escalating into a full financial crisis. Since it... 29th September 2022 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Answering your questions on currencies We held a Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss the growing turbulence in FX markets and our views on the major currencies. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several... 29th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf... 29th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External strains building in North Africa The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell channels Volcker, yen intervention & sterling breaks Another eventful week in financial markets has seen the US dollar strengthen across the board as the FOMC’s 75bp hike and Chair Powell’s hawkish message hammered risk sentiment. The dollar is now near... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
