Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Epic central bank week ends in a draw on the FX front Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Market turmoil tests RBI’s appetite for FX intervention Although the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar this week amid a broad-based sell-off in global financial markets, it held up better than most other EM currencies. That’s probably down... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the sharp falls in the lira have much further to run The Turkish lira is once again depreciating sharply against the US dollar and we expect this to continue. We revise our forecasts for the lira and pencil in further substantial weakness by the end of... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ to raise ceiling on 10-year yields The weakening in the yen to a 24-year low and a crack in the Bank of Japan’s ceiling on 10-year yields today is putting significant pressure on policymakers to respond. FX intervention is a... 13th June 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Souring risk sentiment reignites the dollar rally The US dollar rose against all major currencies this week, reversing some of its fall over the past month or so. Much of this strength came late in the week as equity markets came under renewed... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Four key points on the renminbi’s spillovers to EM currencies While the spillovers from the renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar over the past two months have in some ways been similar to previous periods of renminbi weakness, the impact on other... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Fed’s “QT” supports our case for a stronger US dollar While we doubt it will be the main driver of the US dollar, the ongoing reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., “quantitative tightening”, or “QT”) adds to our conviction that the... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect pressure on JGBs and the yen to continue The BoJ’s tolerance band for 10-year government bond yields is under pressure again as US Treasury yields rise. We think continued policy divergence will mean that the Japanese yen weakens further... 8th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think a hawkish RBA will continue to support the AUD Although we doubt it will appreciate much against the US dollar, we expect the Australian dollar to continue to hold up well relative to most other G10 currencies. 7th June 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update We think the renminbi will fall further While it has rebounded over the past couple of weeks, we expect the renminbi to resume its fall against the US dollar as China’s economy underwhelms, interest rate differentials continue to shift... 1st June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil embargo, PLN/HUF divergence, inventory boost The EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude and petroleum products will be painful for Russia, but it won't be a disaster for as long as commodity prices remain high and Russia can export... 1st June 2022 · 8 mins read
