Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s external vulnerabilities in the spotlight The surge in energy prices this year has led to a sharp widening in Hungary’s current account deficit and increased its dependence on foreign capital inflows. While the central bank seems to have put... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Probably approaching the final stage of the dollar rally While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and... 2nd November 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar can climb higher even if the Fed “steps down” The US dollar looks set to end the week lower amid a rally in most riskier assets and currencies, driven in large part by renewed hopes that the Fed and other major central banks will soon slow the... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Overvaluation points to USD weakness further ahead Even after the US dollar’s recent pullback, we estimate that the greenback is now more overvalued than it was at its last peak in the early 2000s. This suggests to us that the dollar is set to weaken... 28th October 2022 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Looming global recession another threat to risky assets We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields... 28th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Capital Daily What to make of the recent relief rally The rebound across major bond, equity, and currency markets over recent days provides a bit of relief for investors after a torrid few weeks. But we doubt that it will prove the start of a sustained... 26th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack A period of calm after the storm The reversal of Truss/Kwarteng’s fiscal policies and Rishi Sunak’s appointment as the UK’s new Prime Minister has ushered in a period of calm in UK financial markets after the recent storm. Indeed... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The “Fed Whisperer” & MoF strike again, dropping the dollar The dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies after an article today by the WSJ’s often well-informed Fed reporter, Nick Timiraos, suggesting some FOMC officials favour a... 21st October 2022 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
