FX Markets Valuations Monitor Overvaluation may limit further strength in the USD We estimate that, in aggregate, the US dollar has become more overvalued over the past few months. In our view, this is because fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies have not... 29th July 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics EM FX has a bit further to fall; some pockets of greater concern With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several... 26th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar pauses ahead of the Fed After a series of strong weeks left it at two-decade highs, the US dollar seems set to end this week lower against most major currencies. Despite weaker-than-expected activity data out of the US, UK... 22nd July 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s trade deficit, Chilean peso’s rollercoaster The somewhat surprising widening of Colombia’s trade deficit in May suggests that the current account deficit isn’t narrowing as we’d expected. This will keep the peso on the backfoot and the central... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Demographics to remain an important growth driver The latest population projections released by the UN this month show that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023 (see Chart 1), a touch earlier than previously expected... 21st July 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt the stage is set for a “profitless” S&P 500 rally While the valuation of the S&P 500 has fallen a long way, we don’t expect it to rebound any time soon; this is one reason we expect the index to continue to struggle over at least the remainder of... 21st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings expectations, the Fed and the S&P 500 Optimistic expectations for US corporate earnings over the next couple of years, coupled with a still-hawkish Fed, mean we think the S&P 500 will stay under pressure for a while. 18th July 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Will the ECB & BoJ fight back against depreciation? Although it has dropped back a little today, the US dollar is on track for another strong week, rising further against all other major currencies and hitting a new 20-year high. At the time of writing... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics We think the Mexican peso will fall further We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Latin... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the dollar’s rally With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Euro-zone risk premia could stay high for a while yet The valuations of euro-zone assets are now very low relative to those in the US, but we don’t think that’s a reason to expect the former to outperform the latter any time soon. UK Drop-In (20th July... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
