China Chart Pack PBOC moving to defend key renminbi threshold The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the renminbi is little... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Pound to plumb new depths Our forecast that the energy crisis will push the euro-zone and UK economies into recession while the US gets away with a milder slowdown suggests that the euro and the pound will weaken further... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Powell pushes the US dollar towards fresh highs Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly External risks, Banxico minutes, Massa’s orthodoxy Current account figures released this week go a long way to explaining the diverging performance between the Mexican and the Chilean pesos. While we expect both to weaken over the coming months, there... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect real yields to remain a drag on European currencies A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar gains on safe-haven demand, fading “pivot” narrative The US dollar rallied sharply this week, regaining most of the ground lost since its mid-July peak as US interest rate expectations rebounded and risk appetite faded. All G10 currencies fell against... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar falters on continued risk-on rally The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
