Capital Daily What the Bank of Japan’s latest surprise could mean for markets Although upward pressure on the yields of Japanese Government Bonds and on the yen could continue for a while, we’re sceptical of claims that today’s Bank of Japan decision to tweak its yield curve... 20th December 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update BoJ’s YCC shift points to stronger yen The Bank of Japan’s unexpected decision to alter its yield curve control (YCC) policy has led to a surge in the yen today; we now expect the USD/JPY rate to drop further, reaching 125 by end-2023. In... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The BoJ makes its move – What now for monetary policy? 1671609600 Does the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement about changes to its yield curve control policy point to a fundamental shift in its monetary stance? Is this new regime defensible?
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Financial and Commodity Markets 1673424000 Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing held this special 20-minute online briefing with Chief Markets Economist John Higgins and Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain on the outlook for financial
Capital Daily Recession fears may continue to weigh on risky assets Investors seem to have priced in a more downbeat outlook for the economy last week, but we think they are still too optimistic. Accordingly, we expect risky assets to come under more pressure over the... 19th December 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap ECB steals the show, but the dollar rebounds After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest... 16th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi rally may stall even as the Fed turns less hawkish We think the recent rally in the renminbi against the US dollar will lose a bit of steam over the next few months, as China’s economy struggles amid virus-related disruptions. 14th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update What re-opening might mean for China’s markets We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields... 14th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets calm ahead of central bank meetings & US CPI Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next... 9th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks mounting as 2023 approaches Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar’s struggles continue on Powell’s mixed messages Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction... 2nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
