Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect... 8th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A sizeable fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in August may be further evidence of the PBOC pushing back against the slide in the renminbi. If the currency were to breach 7 to the... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external risks underline need for weaker pound Concerns over Egypt’s external position have grown due to the country’s wide current account deficit, rising short-term external debt and declining FX reserves. While some of the risks are mitigated... 6th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Global backdrop exposing EMs with weak balance sheets Tighter global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar continue to punish a number of frontier markets with weak sovereign balance sheets. Meanwhile, worries about Turkey’s balance of... 5th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Egypt answered Egypt is facing growing external strains and downward pressure on the pound, with policymaking coming under increased scrutiny in recent weeks following the sudden resignation of central bank governor... 5th September 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Euro under renewed pressure ahead of ECB decision While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Asian currencies to remain under pressure We think that continued sluggish growth in China and globally means that the renminbi, and other Asian currencies, will fall a bit further this year. 1st September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We now expect more weakness in European currencies While the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies have already fallen significantly against the dollar over the past year or so, we now expect them to weaken further over the next twelve... 1st September 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update A lot more pain to come for European currencies Despite their precipitous fall against the dollar this year and last, we think the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies will weaken further over the next twelve month as the economic... 31st August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
