Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 2nd February 2023, 3:00PM GMT China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand. But what does the economy’s reopening really mean for emerging...
FX Markets Chart Pack We still think safe-haven demand will push up the USD Optimism around China’s rapid re-opening and stronger-than-expected data out of Europe have put continued pressure on the US dollar over the past month or so. In turn, we have revised down our... 26th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap BoJ pushes back while the dollar continues to tread water The US dollar looks set to end the week broadly flat against major currencies after, by recent standards, a quiet week in FX markets. But Wednesday may have offered a glimpse of what is to come over... 20th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Reconciling our latest forecasts for JGBs and the yen Although the 10-year JGB yield has dropped back by about 10bp since the Bank of Japan refrained this week from abandoning Yield Curve Control, we think the yield will rebound when – or quite possibly... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 1674720000 China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
FX Markets Update Stronger yen still on the cards despite the BoJ’s obstinance While the Bank of Japan pushed back against expectations that it would end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy yesterday, we think it is only a matter of time before YCC bites the dust. That suggests... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen rally continues as Yield Curve Control circles the drain The US dollar has remained under pressure as hopes of a “soft landing” continue to build and risk sentiment improves. While yesterday’s key US CPI data came out roughly in line with consensus... 13th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
