Capital Daily Japan’s policymakers have bought the yen some time We think FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), if sustained, will be enough to prevent much further depreciation in the yen against the dollar until downward pressure from widening... 22nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE oil capacity, Egypt FX restrictions, Saudi-rupee trade The UAE is seeking to raise oil production capacity more aggressively than previously planned as it aims to get ahead of peak oil demand and capture oil market share. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia also... 22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response FX intervention aims to put a ceiling on USD/JPY 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Government bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar We think the US dollar will rally further against most major currencies even if, as we expect, it doesn’t receive much more support from interest rate differentials. 20th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: counting the cost of a strong dollar The strong dollar environment is particularly worrying for those EMs with large dollar debts, including parts of Latin America, Turkey and many frontier markets. But it’s also a concern for countries... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Renewed expectations for a hawkish Fed reignite USD rally The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although... 16th September 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi may stabilise despite China’s faltering economy Although we think China’s economic outlook is bleak, we don’t expect further big falls in the renminbi against the greenback. 16th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stealth intervention would be costly With the yen falling to a 24-year low against the dollar, the government this week requested exchange rate quotes from the banks which some see as a precursor to intervention. Apart from the Ministry... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We continue to think sterling will fall along with Gilt yields Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower... 14th September 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback edges lower ahead of US CPI data Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pound to fall further, but it’s not an EM currency Although the slump in the pound to $1.14 earlier this week took it to its lowest level since 1985, the suggestions that it is turning into an emerging market currency are misplaced. The key difference... 9th September 2022 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No tightening even if yen stays near 145 Policymakers ratcheted up their verbal intervention as the yen weakened this week but the bar to more direct action is high. We don’t think the Bank of Japan would be too concerned if the yen remained... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion, rupee settlement mechanism If media reports are to be believed, Indian local-currency bonds are on the cusp of being included in major bond indices for the first time. That could lead to a pick up in foreign inflows, but... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
