Capital Daily Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now... 22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the dam finally broken for Asian FX? We think Asian currencies will generally continue to rise against the US dollar over time, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as they have lately. 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reviewing the recent round trip in markets Nearly all of the pullback in the S&P 500 since the bout of rotation in the stock market began in the wake of June’s CPI report on 11th July has now been reversed. Admittedly, the same cannot be said... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong yen may not keep weighing on Japanese stocks While we expect the yen to rise further this year and next, we think this won’t stop Japanese stocks from making gains, even in local-currency terms. 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency calm restored ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as calm has been restored quickly in financial markets, with this week’s key economic data providing renewed support for the “soft landing” scenario. Next week is... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall While expectations for interest rates in the UK have already fallen by 40bp by end-2025 since mid-July, our projections for UK CPI inflation to remain below the 2% target for much of 2025 and 2026... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A yen for stability While a big reduction in speculative positioning against the Japanese currency may mean that future moves in global financial markets will be less extreme than recent ones, it doesn’t preclude more... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Is the yen carry trade unwind already over? After a turbulent start to the week, financial markets have stabilised over recent days, with asset prices and risky currencies recovering some of their sharp falls in the wake of the run of poor US... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weaker MXN no major concern for Banxico, nor for us At Banxico’s meeting yesterday, worries over the weakness in the Mexican economy outweighed concerns over the sell-off in the Mexican peso and prompted the central bank to restart its easing cycle... 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus Yield curve dis-inversion, Sahm rule & financial markets Concerns about a US recession have led to a sharp reassessment in financial markets; some of the shifts in the wake of the latest US non-farm payrolls report look overdone (and have to some extent... 9th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico cuts, LatAm and the global market turmoil The Mexican peso was on a rollercoaster ride this week but, as we'd expected, Banxico placed more emphasis on the weakness in the economy as it pressed ahead with a 25bp cut (to 10.75%). And the... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
