FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar grinds higher as CPI reinforces Fed hawkishness The dollar is ending another volatile week in FX markets a touch higher against most major currencies. The market reaction to the upside surprise in September’s US CPI data (released yesterday) was... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update High FX-hedged Gilt yields may be short-lived The spread between the 10-year Gilt yield hedged in US dollar terms and the 10-year Treasury yield has widened dramatically of late. But given our forecasts for short-term interest rates in the UK and... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly MoF winding up for another intervention The yen weakened below its 1998 trough today, with no explicit intervention in response from the Ministry of Finance. That doesn't mean it won't step in again, but it appears to be more concerned... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the aussie and kiwi have a bit further to fall We expect the aussie and the kiwi to weaken further against the US dollar and trough around mid-2023. And while we don’t expect the aussie to outperform the kiwi as it has recently, we think it will... 12th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The impacts of a strong dollar on the global economy The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy, as it will weigh further on demand for traded goods and add to global inflationary pressures. It is another reason why we expect the... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Resilient US economic data leave the dollar rally intact The dollar looks set to end the week on the front foot, having rallied over the past three days after a weak spell following the BoE’s intervention in the Gilt market last Wednesday. The key driver... 7th October 2022 · 11 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, in... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think even-higher oil prices will push yields up Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think oil prices could rise further without pushing US inflation compensation, and therefore Treasury yields, any higher. 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Fracturing and financial flows The trend towards ever more “financial globalisation” has already decelerated and will probably slow further as the global economy fractures and policymakers favour resilience over efficiency. While a... 6th October 2022 · 25 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We don’t think the US dollar has peaked yet While the dollar has dropped back sharply over the past week, we continue to think that its rally has further to run as the global economy slows further and safe-have demand intensifies. 4th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Policy U-turns unlikely to take the pressure off the pound Even though recent developments in the UK may have provided some reassurance to investors and helped sterling to recover, we think that the deteriorating global economic outlook will ensure that the... 3rd October 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Intervention stems the dollar tide for now; US payrolls ahead During yet another tumultuous week in financial markets, the dollar has dropped back over the past couple of days after intervention by the BoE (in the gilt market) and the PBOC (in the renminbi)... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ risks turmoil even if governments stay responsible While we don’t expect euro-zone governments to engage in UK-style large discretionary fiscal loosening, Italy’s weak public finances and/or the ECB’s likely reluctance to intervene in government bond... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
