Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update The Colombian peso looks poised for a rebound As political risks appear to be largely discounted by investors, we expect the Colombian peso to outperform other major EM currencies over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest we... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar continues its slow and steady rise The US dollar looks set to end a third week higher against most major currencies amid mounting evidence that the US economy started the year on strong footing. In particular, hawkish FOMC minutes and... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue to edge higher Stronger-than-expected data out of the US have pushed up US yields more than elsewhere and drove the greenback higher against most currencies for the first time since its cyclical peak in October of... 23rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Higher rates priced in, but much weaker growth isn’t The recent resilience of economic activity has left us comfortable with our view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50%, rather than to 4.25% as analysts... 23rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Strong US data & hawkish Fed add to the dollar rebound Another round of robust US economic data and renewed hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials has given the US dollar a boost this week. With economic activity holding up better than we and most others had... 17th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Mexican peso’s outperformance will reverse soon While it has outperformed nearly all major currencies over the past couple of years, we think the Mexican peso will fall sharply against the dollar if, as we expect, the US economy weakens later this... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Mexican peso to reverse course before long The Mexican peso’s outperformance since the start of 2022 has pushed up its valuation substantially, and we think that this leaves it vulnerable to sharp falls against the US dollar if, as we expect... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of US CPI data next week The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
