UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy heading from bad to worse Nigeria’s demonetisation efforts are likely to add to already-high economic costs of the country’s unorthodox policies. The resulting currency falls will fuel inflation further and disruptions to... 10th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think optimism around China’s COVID policy is misplaced The recent rally in assets and currencies linked to the prospects of China’s economy on hopes that the authorities in China will relax their “zero-COVID” policy is unlikely to last. 7th November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Powell trumped by payrolls & China optimism After another turbulent week in currency markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week a touch lower against most major currencies after a mixed US payrolls report and hopes that China is about to... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: Looming global recession another threat to risky assets 1668004200 Chief Markets Economist John Higgins held a discussion with economists from across our Markets team shortly after the release of our Q4 Outlooks.
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier currencies in the firing line Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s external vulnerabilities in the spotlight The surge in energy prices this year has led to a sharp widening in Hungary’s current account deficit and increased its dependence on foreign capital inflows. While the central bank seems to have put... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Probably approaching the final stage of the dollar rally While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and... 2nd November 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar can climb higher even if the Fed “steps down” The US dollar looks set to end the week lower amid a rally in most riskier assets and currencies, driven in large part by renewed hopes that the Fed and other major central banks will soon slow the... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
