Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 25th November 2022 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect bond yields and equities to fall in tandem Most developed market government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed-speak stabilises the dollar The dollar has recouped a bit of ground this week as Treasury yields have stabilised and the rally in risky assets has stalled, but the greenback remains well below its late September peak. As we... 18th November 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update High carry may not offer much support to EM currencies High carry emerging market (EM) currencies have generally fared better than their low carry counterparts over recent months, but we doubt this will continue. We think currencies in EM Asia will fare... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gloomy UK fiscal outlook points to lower yields & weaker sterling The market reaction to today’s UK fiscal announcement has proven rather less eventful than the unfortunate “mini-budget” back in September. But while we think that the worst is over for the UK... 17th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s external position better than rest of N. Africa Morocco has been hit hard by the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and, while its external strains aren’t anywhere near as sever as those in Egypt and Tunisia, we think the authorities will need to... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rebound in gold will prove short-lived Despite its recent rally, we think that gold will come under renewed pressure before long amid elevated US real yields. 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US equity underperformance and a weaker dollar Although we still don’t think the US dollar has peaked, we suspect the underperformance of US equities that accompanied the greenback’s slump last week will be a regular feature when the currency does... 14th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect equities to struggle and the greenback to gain While the soft US October CPI print added fuel to the rally in “risky” assets and weighed further on the US dollar, we aren’t ready to abandon our forecasts for the former to struggle, and the latter... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Soft CPI data derail the dollar amid hopes for a Fed “pivot” The dollar is set to end the week substantially lower, adding today to its broad-based weakness following the softer-than-expected US October CPI report. The data were in line with our view that... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We still don’t think the dollar has peaked Despite the recent sharp drop in the greenback, we doubt this is the end of the dollar bull market. 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s zero-COVID policy and currency markets While the renminbi, and many other currencies sensitive to the outlook for China’s economy, have rallied sharply against the dollar on hopes that China will shift away from its “zero-COVID” policy... 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
