Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi rally may stall even as the Fed turns less hawkish We think the recent rally in the renminbi against the US dollar will lose a bit of steam over the next few months, as China’s economy struggles amid virus-related disruptions. 14th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update What re-opening might mean for China’s markets We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields... 14th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets calm ahead of central bank meetings & US CPI Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next... 9th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks mounting as 2023 approaches Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar’s struggles continue on Powell’s mixed messages Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction... 2nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar skids on rebound in risk sentiment Renewed optimism in global markets – in large part tied to hopes for a Fed “pivot” – pushed the US dollar down against most major currencies last month. But with a global recession on the horizon, we... 1st December 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s COVID outbreak: your questions answered We hosted an online Drop-In yesterday to discuss China’s COVID outbreak and its domestic and global implications. This Update answers several of the questions that we received, some of which we couldn... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Consumer resilience unlikely to last Most countries in the region have now reported GDP figures for the third quarter, and growth was generally faster than we (and the consensus) had expected. One factor behind this resilience was the... 29th November 2022 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Pivot” hopes keep the dollar on the back foot The US dollar came under renewed pressure and is set to end the week lower against most major currencies. To a large extent, this weakness came in response to surprisingly strong durable goods data... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
