FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue to edge higher Stronger-than-expected data out of the US have pushed up US yields more than elsewhere and drove the greenback higher against most currencies for the first time since its cyclical peak in October of... 23rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Higher rates priced in, but much weaker growth isn’t The recent resilience of economic activity has left us comfortable with our view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50%, rather than to 4.25% as analysts... 23rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Strong US data & hawkish Fed add to the dollar rebound Another round of robust US economic data and renewed hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials has given the US dollar a boost this week. With economic activity holding up better than we and most others had... 17th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Mexican peso’s outperformance will reverse soon While it has outperformed nearly all major currencies over the past couple of years, we think the Mexican peso will fall sharply against the dollar if, as we expect, the US economy weakens later this... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt equities and the dollar will move in tandem for long The recent strength of the US dollar and resilience of equity markets is a relatively unusual combination. While that could last for a while longer, we continue to think that the outlook for the... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Mexican peso to reverse course before long The Mexican peso’s outperformance since the start of 2022 has pushed up its valuation substantially, and we think that this leaves it vulnerable to sharp falls against the US dollar if, as we expect... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of US CPI data next week The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the BoJ’s YCC is on borrowed time Kazuo Ueda’s impending appointment as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor doesn’t alter our view that Yield Curve Control (YCC) will be abandoned in a few months’ time, pushing up the 10-year JGB yield and... 10th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect China’s “reopening trade” to resume Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high-beta DM currencies face near-term headwinds We expect “high-beta” developed market currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook is less grim, but recession still likely Since the full effects of the previous surge in energy prices and the hike in interest rates have yet to be felt, we still think the economy will succumb to a recession this year. Admittedly, pandemic... 8th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Tighter monetary policy starting to bite The latest business surveys suggest that the euro-zone will stagnate or suffer only a mild recession, but the money and credit data paint a much gloomier picture. Net lending was negative in December... 7th February 2023 · 10 mins read
