Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Ueda-driven drop in the yen unlikely to last Amid a holiday-affected few days in financial markets, one move that stands out is the fall of the yen. But we doubt its weakness will last much longer. 11th April 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Safe -haven currencies edge higher ahead of payrolls It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls in US interest rate expectations, the... 6th April 2023 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Valuation gaps have narrowed for most currencies Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains... 6th April 2023 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities likely to ease The widening in India’s current account deficit last year, to 2.4% of GDP, was not as significant as many had feared in the context of the surge in commodity prices. Looking ahead, we think the... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower even as banking concerns ease Despite making up some ground today, the dollar seems set to end the week somewhat lower against nearly all major currencies. Banking turmoil in the US and elsewhere appears to be receding (for now)... 31st March 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Amid banking turmoil, outlook for “risky” assets seems bleak The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add... 31st March 2023 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Pound a surprising beneficiary of banking concerns Even though equity prices in the UK have fallen further than in the US and the euro-zone since the US bank SVB failed and the European bank Credit Swisse was taken over, the pound has strengthened... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar is down but not (yet) out The dollar’s February rebound has been cut short by turmoil in the US regional banking sector, but we continue to think the greenback will make one final push higher as advanced economies fall into... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 1680616800 With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX.
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Banking panic leaves currency markets strangely unmoved In a week dominated by headlines about bank failures and the risk of another financial crisis, resulting in extraordinary volatility in government bond markets as interest rate expectations have... 17th March 2023 · 11 mins read
