FX Markets Update Another look at the renminbi, the yen & FX intervention While policymakers’ efforts to prop up the renminbi and the yen alone are not enough to generate a lasting turnaround, they will probably do enough to buy time until US interest rate expectations and... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Addressing key questions from our Egypt drop-in Yesterday, we hosted a Drop-in webinar taking a closer look at the state of play in Egypt and whether the country can get its IMF deal back of track. You can view on-demand here. This Update addresses... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields and sterling set to fall in the coming months Our view on UK inflation vis-à-vis the US suggests that bond yields are set to fall back by more in the former, adding downward pressure on sterling. 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily PBOC & BoJ to markets: You shall not pass? Another step up in the Chinese and Japanese authorities’ efforts to prop up their faltering currencies has given the renminbi and the yen a bit of a boost today. Alone, these measures are unlikely to... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback grinds higher and “carry” currencies crack The US dollar looks set to end the week higher against nearly all other major currencies. Remarkably, the DXY Index is set for an eight consecutive weekly rise, something that has rarely occurred... 8th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2023) Having remained resilient over the past months, inflows into EM bonds and equity markets have turned negative in recent weeks. Inflows into Turkey have weakened despite August’s sharp interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen weakening to a one-year low against the dollar, the chances that the authorities will intervene to stem its slide have risen. That would probably have little success if interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 1694599200 Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external imbalances starting to unwind Having ballooned during the post-pandemic recovery, Colombia’s current account deficit has started to narrow and should continue to do so in the coming quarters. This, alongside the shift in financing... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Soft payrolls can’t keep the dollar down for long A run of soft US labour market data has left the dollar on track to end the week slightly lower against most major currencies, threatening to break the DXY index’s six-week winning streak despite a... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our FX Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The dollar has rebounded in August but remains broadly unchanged on the year so far. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
