FX Markets Chart Pack Crosswinds continue in currency markets The US dollar has rebounded in recent weeks as resilient US economic data and renewed hawkish noises from the FOMC have revived the “higher for longer” narrative, shifting relative interest rate... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Pockets of vulnerability in major EMs Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Latest signs of optimism in Turkey’s markets may not last A sense that President Erdogan might shift towards orthodox policymaking seems to be soothing Turkey’s financial markets, but we doubt this optimism will last long. And we think the Turkish lira will... 30th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar marches on thanks to “higher for longer” For the third week running, the dollar looks primed to notch up decent gains against most other major currencies. We don’t think newsflow regarding the US debt ceiling (which has swung from positive... 26th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further Despite the recent slowdown in China’s reopening recovery, we don’t expect the renminbi to weaken much further against the US dollar. Yield differentials should begin to tilt back in favour of the... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Rising yields push dollar higher ahead of Powell comments The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies amid the prospect of policy rates in developed markets (DM) remaining “higher for longer”. While this week’s rise in DM... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt playing with fire The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting and the lack of comment on the pound will only add to investor concerns about the commitment... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Debt ceiling debacle threatens renewed turmoil While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries... 18th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What more disappointing China data means for its markets The “China re-opening” narrative has been on life support for some time, and another round of weaker-than-expected economic data out of the Middle Kingdom adds to our sense that China’s economy and... 16th May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports supporting external position The recent strength of services exports has helped to offset much of the impact of the drop in goods exports and – along with a pull-back in import values – is another reason to think that the current... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Election offers no respite for the Turkish lira President Erdogan’s unexpectedly strong showing in Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday means that a return to orthodox policymaking looks as far away as ever. As a consequence, the Turkish lira... 15th May 2023 · 6 mins read
