China Economics Weekly Emerging industries won’t replace property The leadership's recent promotion of "new-type industrialisation" has led to suggestions that emerging new manufacturing sectors like green technology could take the place of property as drivers of... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The trouble before the bubble Both “safe” and “risky” assets have struggled during Q3 so far, as “risk-free” yields have risen. We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) We suspect the pound will fall from $1.22 now to $1.20 by the end of this year. That’s not due to lower interest rate expectations in the UK compared to the US or the euro-zone, as we think the UK... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil price rise not a major threat to external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in the four quarters to Q2 was mainly due to the shrinking of the goods trade deficit. Looking ahead, the recent jump in oil prices won’t prevent the... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from Nigeria’s policy shift at risk of evaporating Nigeria’s policy shift has stalled in recent weeks as officials have responded to a growing political backlash by reverting to the interventionist tendencies of the Buhari administration. The result... 28th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Balance sheet problems to weigh on recoveries Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and... 27th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar appears to be losing steam Amid the flurry of central bank announcements, the Fed doubling down on “higher for longer” proved to be enough for the greenback to eke out small gains against most other currencies, taking the DXY... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Ueda makes yen intervention more likely With the Bank of Japan offering little new at its policy meeting earlier today and US Treasury yields surging higher in the wake of the FOMC’s hawkish message earlier in the week, pressure on the yen... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the European G10 currencies With most European G10 central banks now at, or very close to, the ends of their tightening cycles, this note examines where the European G10 currencies stand and how we see the outlook for the main... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for US and UK markets We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily On the dwindling influence of TIPS on other assets The latest increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~2% at one point last week, has barely caused a ripple in the markets. More generally, the influence of “safe”... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar’s winning streak is unlikely to last much longer Another week, another rise in the DXY index, which at the time of writing is on track for a ninth consecutive weekly rise. Continued robust activity data in the US and the ECB signalling the end of... 15th September 2023 · 9 mins read
