Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Rebound in “carry” currencies may prove short-lived High carry EM currencies have rallied as US bond yields have fallen back and risk sentiment has improved, but we still expect most of these currencies to come under renewed pressure in the coming... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the greenback? While the US dollar has bounced back a bit this week, its struggles over the past month or so are in some ways similar to the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year. But we think a comparable... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s currency pegs? Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Weak US payrolls finally break the currency stalemate After a remarkably slow October in currency markets – for all the fireworks in bond and equity markets, most major currencies were roughly unchanged on the month – November has started with a bang... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The renminbi’s rise in China’s global transactions For the first time, over half of China’s global transactions are being settled in renminbi. Most of this renminbi isn’t travelling far – the bulk of settlement is being driven by financial flows with... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four things of note on the SNB this week The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ normalisation points to higher JGB yields & stronger yen We think the Bank of Japan’s continued steps towards policy normalisation are consistent with somewhat higher JGB yields and a significant rebound in the yen over the coming quarters. In view of the... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been update with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Tight policy and a weak external environment will constrain growth over the coming quarters. 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily YCC tweak fails to help the yen, MoF intervention next? As is often the case, it is hard to know just what to make of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy announcement. Our sense is that the resulting rise in Japanese government bond yields is more likely to... 31st October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets at a crossroad again ahead of the FOMC Despite another week of broadly dollar-positive news, the greenback has continued to drift sideways – suggesting its rally since July is running out of steam. Even though US Q3 GDP came in at nearly 5... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
