Capital Daily Labour market data send markets there and back again Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls & intervention chatter shuffle the currency deck again While the US dollar has dropped back in the wake of today’s non-farm payrolls report, continuing its recent struggles, two other trends in currency markets are showing some signs of exhaustion. Most... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble’s depreciation, Turkey’s adjustment in swing The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia's trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Intervention time: what next for the yen and the renminbi? China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export curbs will become blunt with use The PBOC has succeeded for the time being in stemming the slide in the renminbi. It wouldn’t take much for pressure to return, but we think the balance of probabilities points to a stronger currency... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: near-term growth restrained, gas hopes bright Tanzania’s economic growth will remain sluggish by past standards over the next couple of years due to the effects of persistent drought and tight fiscal policy. But with policymaking shifting in a... 6th July 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia no closer to solving its sovereign debt problem Tunisia is struggling to get an IMF deal over the line and, unless President Saied’s government agrees in the near-future to allow the dinar to fall and to implement a large fiscal consolidation, the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s export boom likely to fade The surge in Brazil’s exports since the start of the pandemic has helped the economy recover more quickly than we and most others had anticipated. And unlike previous spikes in exports, some of the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 6th July 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account risks have declined sharply A significant number of EMs that were running large current account deficits last year – including much of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Peru and Chile – have seen dramatic improvements in their... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renminbi intervention China has stepped up its support of the renminbi, which has rebounded over the past couple of days. This may well prove a turning point for the currency. Three key points are worth emphasising. 4th July 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains rangebound as FX market calm persists The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
