FX Markets Weekly Wrap Global backdrop proves “just right” for more USD weakness Currencies were no exception to the calm across markets, and the US dollar seems set the end the week a bit lower against most currencies. While “more of the same” downbeat data out of the euro-zone... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s going on in Asia’s bond and FX markets? We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We think the yen and renminbi will extend their gains The fall in US Treasury yields has driven rebounds in the yen and renminbi against the US dollar, and we expect this trend to continue through at least the next year or so. 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Early thoughts on Mileinomics & market implications Victory for maverick Javier Milei in Argentina’s presidential election means the country is about to embark on yet another economic experiment. While it is hard to say what that will bring for its... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of ultra-low rates and what it means for EMs In our flagship report on the neutral interest rate (r*), we argued that r* in developed markets will rise and be higher than is widely assumed. (The full report can be accessed here.) For most EMs, r... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Milei’s win brings shock therapy onto the table Javier Milei’s victory in the final round of Argentina’s presidential election yesterday will bring about a major shift in economic policymaking. We suspect that some of his more radical proposals –... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Déjà vu after all for the dollar The dollar is ending the week on the back foot, with the DXY index on track for its worst week since July, after this week’s US CPI print came in softer than expected. That has reinforced the growing... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s final presidential vote, Pemex woes The final round of Argentina’s presidential election between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa on Sunday offers starkly different paths for the economy – shock therapy or more of the current government’s... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Goldilocks and currency markets The emerging “goldilocks” narrative is a challenge to our forecast that the dollar will appreciate a bit over the coming months while the more cyclically sensitive currencies underperform, but we... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of volatility and risk premia Measures of cross-asset volatility and risk premia suggest that investors are increasingly discounting a fairly rosy market environment over the coming months. This leaves them at risk of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell closes the door on recent dollar weakness In an otherwise quiet week, the greenback seems set to close higher against most major currencies, reversing much of its decline following the October payrolls data release. We think the dollar’s rise... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
