UK Economics Focus The falling dollar’s threat to the UK The realignment of the US dollar against the world’s other major currencies has pushed the dollar/pound exchange rate to its highest levels since Black Wednesday and put a $2.00 pound within reach... 27th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The pound at a critical juncture (Q1 04) The pound has been caught in the middle of a major realignment between the US dollar and the euro, which we believe could have significantly further to go. 30th December 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The Chancellor's five-point plan for Britain (Q3 03) The Treasury’s assessment of the five economic tests to determine whether the UK should adopt the euro has had an unexpected benefit – five ideas for reform, admittedly not all new, to improve the... 27th June 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus There’s life outside the euro Now that the UK has decided not to adopt the euro, attention will turn to the implications of this decision. Many studies in the last year or so have concluded that the UK has already missed out on a... 12th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Lower pound should not prevent future rate cuts Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged presumably reflected a belief amongst MPC members that the drop in the exchange rate will do their job for them. This view is supported by some model... 8th May 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The five tests for euro entry: pass or fail? (Q2 03) In a few months, the Treasury will complete its assessment of the five economic tests for UK adoption of the single currency. Should the tests be passed, a referendum could follow in the autumn and we... 30th March 2003 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Sterling - still too high after all these years (Q4 02) With the issue of UK entry into the single European currency likely to come to the fore again over the next year or so, whether the exchange rate is at an appropriate level for entry will be a... 27th September 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing forms a major barrier to UK adoption of the euro Structural differences between the UK and continental European housing markets are a major barrier to Britain adopting the euro. Because of the large proportion of variable-rate mortgages in the UK... 26th July 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Blair and the Euro – A Serious Case of Mission Creep? Today’s press is full of the idea that the Prime Minster is set to push ahead with plans for a euro referendum. This is so much at odds with our own assessment, notably in our last Quarterly Review... 3rd October 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook To be in, or not to be in - that is the question - Prospects for euro entry (Q3 01) The euro is the main economic issue of the day. Both financial planners and economic policy-makers would be strongly affected if the pound were to join it and, accordingly, they are obliged to make an... 27th June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Mansion House Speech & the Euro Last night’s Mansion House Speech by Gordon Brown seems to have put paid to recent speculation of an early assessment of the five economic tests leading to a euro referendum as soon as this Autumn... 21st June 2001 · 1 min read
