UK Economics Update Is the strong pound decade over? Sterling’s continued weakness even as interest rate expectations have moved back in its favour could reflect growing concerns over the fundamental health of the UK economy and hinder the Monetary... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Money markets move back towards normal (Jan 08) The recent injections of liquidity by central banks appear to have played a major role in pushing interbank interest rates back towards more normal levels. Three month LIBOR in the UK is now just 10... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the dollar and euro? We have been long-term bears of the dollar and expect further falls against Asian currencies, including the yen, in 2008. But after the sharp declines in recent years, the outlook against the euro is... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling pound won't do the MPC's job for it The recent sharp fall in the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate represents a loosening of monetary conditions in the UK economy. However, it is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee... 7th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: the end of a golden era? There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term... 4th July 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank won’t wait long to continue tightening Although the Norges Bank unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4% today, we do not think that this represents a fundamental change in the outlook for Norwegian interest rates ahead. 25th April 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norge Bank signals significant further tightenin The Norges Bank hiked interest rates today by 25bps to 4.0%, marking a fourth consecutive move and the ninth step in the tightening cycle which began in June 2005. This also keeps rates a step ahead... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue? The rebound in the dollar is looking increasingly over-extended. Shifting interest rate differentials are still the most common explanation of recent dollar moves against the euro. But these cannot... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should Italy leave EMU? The fact that Italy’s economic under-performance is linked to the weakness of its external sector prompts the question of whether Italy should leave EMU to allow its currency to depreciate and regain... 20th September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling on the brink The sterling exchange rate could be on the brink of a major downward adjustment. This could have positive implications for the economy if it revives the beleaguered export sector and leads to better... 12th July 2005 · 1 min read
