Asia Economics Update Is China now targeting a trade-weighted exchange rate? The renminbi’s long pause at seven to the dollar is evidence that the Chinese currency is as closely tied to the US dollar as ever. A gradual loosening of that link is likely to be the next major... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bond markets spooked by inflation (May 08) The last month has seen the UK’s bond market become much more concerned about the outlook for inflation. In particular, 20 year break-even inflation rates have climbed to levels not seen since the... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro not about to collapse Speculation is growing that the euro’s extended rally against the US dollar and UK pound is finally at an end. But with the euro-zone economy in fundamentally better shape than those of the US and UK... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower pound will not prevent a manufacturing recession The sharp fall in the pound seen since last summer is unlikely to prevent the manufacturing sector from slipping into a recession this year. But it should mean that the downturn will be fairly shallow... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bank to do more to unblock the money markets (Apr 08) The last month has seen a marked deterioration in conditions in global money markets. Interbank interest rates in the UK have hardly responded at all to April’s 25bps cut in official interest rates... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the dollar's reserve currency status under threat? The sub-prime crisis in US financial markets does not yet appear to have turned the dollar into a subprime currency. The latest IMF data show that despite the weakness of the dollar over several years... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What next for the renminbi? We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What next for the renminbi? We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling's telling softness Sterling’s relative weakness during the latest bout of market volatility is a telling indication of the growing concerns about the health of the UK economy. But the falling pound could itself damage... 18th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much further will the dollar fall? This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who's most afraid of a weaker dollar? The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bond market is priced for recession (Mar-08) While much has been made of the recent rise in the markets’ inflation expectations, less attention has fallen on just how pessimistic the markets have become on the outlook for activity. Indeed, the... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the top on euro-dollar The recent stabilisation of the dollar against the euro – despite aggressive cuts in US interest rates and growing fears of a US recession – has encouraged speculation that the decline in the US... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Exporters' greed may prevent the pound from boosting growth Early signs that UK exporters are using the fall in the pound to boost their profit margins rather than their competitiveness could mean that the lower exchange rate does not lead to the rebalancing... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The slower rates are cut, the further they will fall (Feb-08) The markets are increasingly coming round to our view that the slower the MPC cuts interest rates, the further interest rates might eventually have to fall. While the markets’ expectations for where... 11th February 2008 · 1 min read
