UK Economics Focus Is the lower pound already helping? On the face of it, the plummeting level of UK exports suggests that the sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate over the last year or two has done nothing to cushion the UK’s external sector from the... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Corporate bond spreads grind tighter (May 09) According to the Investment Management Association, the credit crunch has resulted in the sterling corporate bond market becoming characterised by wide spreads, a lack – or even absence of – market... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK make the most of the lower pound? Concerns have been expressed that the UK’s export-dependent sectors, most notably manufacturing, no longer have the key ingredients necessary to make the most of the boost to their competitiveness... 12th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More upside for the pound, at least against the euro While some of sterling’s recent strengthening may reflect short-term factors which could be quickly reversed, there are more fundamental reasons to expect the pound to rise, at least against the euro. 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Outlook still favourable for gilts (Apr 09) We continue to expect 10 year gilt yields to drop to around 2.5% and to remain at those sorts of levels for a prolonged period. While breakeven inflation rates have crept a little higher in response... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No dislodging the dollar The suggestion by China’s central bank governor that the dollar be replaced as the world’s reserve currency may have been prompted by concern about the impact of the Fed’s quantitative easing on the... 24th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Quantitative easing makes its mark (Mar 09) Our view that the combination of very low interest rates, deflationary pressures and large-scale official purchases of bonds would push gilt yields sharply lower has been strongly borne out over... 24th March 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is quantitative easing so bad for the dollar? The markets’ initial reaction to the Fed’s decision to step up its policy of quantitative easing, including a new plan to buy Treasury securities, has been to sell the dollar. We do not expect this... 19th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets grasp the grim reality Financial markets appear finally to have grasped the severity of the economic outlook over the last few months. The steep falls in equity prices, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate have left... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can be done to stop the rot? We think a pan-regional IMF or EU-led bailout fund offers the best way out of the bout of indiscriminate selling that has gripped markets in the Emerging Europe in recent weeks. But for now, at least... 6th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the lower pound stave off deflation? The sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate does not preclude the danger that a short bout of deflation driven by commodity prices later this year will be followed by a broader and longerlasting... 2nd March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts poised to rally further on adoption of QE (Feb 09) The bond market sell-off since the start of the year has stemmed from hope that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will trigger economic recovery and prevent deflation. Concern about the market’s... 17th February 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss bank losses point to severe recession The record loss reported by UBS yesterday provides further support for our long-held view that the Swiss economy will suffer heavily from its reliance on the financial services sector. This suggests... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China still the US Treasury’s best friend? The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
