Global Markets Update The yen looks set to stay strong Speculation that there has been a change in Japan’s policy toward FX market intervention misses the point. The yen is not expensive in real trade-weighted terms, and has mainly climbed on Japan’s... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to give up on the dollar We continue to expect the US dollar to rebound against the euro and commodity currencies in the coming months, although Asian currencies should do best of all. 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Improved liquidity conditions underpin credit markets (Sep 09) Corporate bond spreads have ground even tighter over the past month. Aside from the improvement in the incoming economic data, which has reduced required compensation for the risk of default, the... 17th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook No “conundrum” in bond/equity divergence The maintenance of historically low levels of short-dated bond yields alongside the strong rally in the equity market has prompted much talk of a “bond-equity conundrum”, in which the two markets... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Corporate bond spreads continue to tighten (Aug 09) The spread of A-rated, 7-10 year UK corporate bonds over gilts over an equivalent maturity has plummeted to around 4% from more than 10% in the dark days of spring. Admittedly, corporate bonds spreads... 10th August 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss industry not out of the woods July’s pick-up in the Swiss manufacturing PMI was an encouraging sign for the industrial sector, as is the Swiss National Bank’s continued intervention to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc... 3rd August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies set to underperform again Commodity currencies have outperformed most other currencies recently. However, this is unlikely to last much longer as risk appetite wanes and Chinese stockpiling slows. 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growth outlook suggests more upside for Asian currencies Widening growth differentials between Emerging Asia and the US should result in further gains in Asian currencies against the dollar over the next 12-18 months. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong euro to add to near-term deflationary pressures The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets shrug off delay to expansion of QE (Jul 09) The gilt market reacted with some concern to the MPC’s decision this month not to announce an immediate increase in the funds it plans to allocate to quantitative easing. However, we think that... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Hot capital returns to China, raising inflation risks further The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Could SDRs supplant the dollar? IMF Special Drawing Rights will not emerge as a reserve asset to challenge the dollar, but they could be used to reduce the risks of a destabilising flight by reserve holders from the US currency. 14th July 2009 · 33 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks not losing faith in the dollar The People’s Bank of China is again calling for an alternative to the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Words are cheap. There is strong evidence that central bank purchases of dollars... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Risk appetite continues to grow (Jun 09) Growth in risk appetite is continuing to have a beneficial impact on credit markets. Corporate bond spreads have tightened further over the past month. The global default rate for speculative grade... 12th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets take green shoots at face value Financial markets appear to have taken the recent signs that the downturn in the UK economy is past its absolute worst at face value, with equities, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate all... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
