Global Markets Update Is “printing money” so bad for the dollar? It is often assumed that the Fed’s monetary expansion has been unambiguously bad news for the dollar and could eventually lead to a collapse in the US currency. The reality is more complicated. We... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still little evidence of a sterling boost As highlighted by this week’s dismal trade figures, evidence of a boost from the lower level of sterling is conspicuous by its absence. There remain few signs that the drop in the pound is either... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Inflation worries will eventually prove misplaced Markets have continued to respond reasonably positively to the further signs of recovery in the global and UK economies. But concerns are starting to emerge that central banks may leave policy... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive? The evidence linking sharp asset price moves in Hong Kong to its tight dollar peg is weaker than many think. With the peg in place, asset price bubbles are a threat for the future. But a shift to an... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning bearish on the yen The yield on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) has risen sharply in recent weeks. Admittedly, yields have risen in other countries. But an additional factor has been concern that the new government is... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The macroeconomic implications of the lower dollar 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bounce in gilt yields may not last (Nov 09) Gilt yields have risen over the last month, with 10-year yields close to half a percentage point higher than a month ago. The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision at its meeting in November to extend... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Return to gradual renminbi appreciation A shift in rhetoric from China’s government suggests that a change in monetary and currency policy may not be far behind. But when it comes, the change will be gradual. In particular, the renminbi... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Who will cope best with the strong euro? With global demand recovering pretty strongly, for at least a few quarters, the ongoing rise of the euro is unlikely to halt the external sector revival in its tracks. Nonetheless, we expect exporters... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising unemployment to keep pay growth slowing At its September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted the importance of earnings growth for the inflation outlook and suggested that firms had in part squeezed pay to offset the effect of... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can the lower pound offset the fiscal squeeze? There are have been suggestions that the adverse impact on the economy of the coming fiscal tightening will be largely or wholly offset by the positive effects of the fall in the sterling exchange... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Real yields take a dive (Oct 09) The yield on inflation-indexed bonds may increase at the outset of a recovery if markets expect the authorities to raise interest rates in real – as well as nominal – terms. However, real yields have... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Asian currency gains are here to stay The authorities in Asia may be protesting recent strong FX gains but there is little evidence they are intervening directly. Indeed, appreciation reflects both dollar weakness and local economic... 9th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rupee on a roll that looks set to continue The rupee has climbed 3% against the US dollar over the last few days which, by recent standards, is a big move. We have long expected the appreciation and more looks on the way as India’s balance of... 7th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of the dollar is not nigh The recent slide in the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves greatly exaggerates the extent to which reserve managers are losing faith in the dollar. The dollar is still entrenched as... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
