Emerging Europe Economics Update Concerns over a strong ruble unlikely to persist The pace of Russia’s recovery is likely to fade and the ruble is likely to weaken if, as we expect, oil prices fall back over the next year or so. 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies to rise further Resumed renminbi appreciation against the dollar looks only a matter of time. Other currencies in Emerging Asia should rise too but the overall impact of a move by China should be small. The Korean... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the sterling boost ever arrive? (Q2 2010) Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Germany save the euro-zone? Increased domestic spending in Germany would not only assist the euro-zone’s troubled periphery but would also be in Germany’s own interests, helping to reduce unemployment. However, while there are... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen heading for 100 against the dollar The past week’s Japanese data included some soft spots, but they were not bad enough on their own to justify a more bearish view on the yen. The relative optimism about the US economy and expectations... 5th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi band would be largely symbolic Chinese policymakers are reportedly close to agreement on the next step in exchange rate reform: a widening of the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. This would be a sensible move, but its... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro to fall further as growth prospects weaken The latest news on the euro-zone has been mixed. March’s business surveys brought hope that the recovery has not ground completely to a halt and the agreement of a Greek rescue package was a relief... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A pivotal moment for relations with the US? The US Treasury’s upcoming announcement on whether China is a “currency manipulator” might not be the pivotal moment some are expecting. That doesn’t mean that a quarrel over the exchange rate can be... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lower pound still not helping much Last week’s trade figures probably won the prize for most disappointing economic data so far this year. Although the snow may have been partly to blame, there has been a deteriorating trend in the... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Central banks cut back on liquidity provisions (Mar 10) Over the last month, central banks have continued to withdraw some of the unconventional liquidity provisions offered to the money markets. The US Federal Reserve raised its discount rate from 0.50%... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where next for the renminbi? Recent comments from People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan make it likely that the renminbi’s dollar peg will remain in place a while longer. When it is loosened, the pace of gains will be slow. 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
