Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro unlikely to solve the region’s woes On the face of it, the recent weakening of the euro should provide the euro-zone’s external sector with a boost over the coming months. But given that exporters have tended previously to respond to a... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker euro-zone to stem Swiss recovery Switzerland’s low levels of public and private sector debt suggest that it will continue to out-grow the euro-zone over the next couple of years. But it will suffer from strong trade links with the... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will Europe’s troubles affect China’s currency policy? Worries about Europe have prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the renminbi’s future pace of gains, but we still expect appreciation against the dollar to resume at some point between next... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts – an even stronger dollar ahead We have revised up our GDP forecasts for the US and Japan. (See our latest US Economic Outlook and Japan Economics Weekly.) At the same time, we have reviewed our projections for currency, bond... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling caught in the middle Co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policy already appears to have stepped up a gear since the new Government took office, with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King endorsing the Government’s... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro heading for parity While some of the forces bearing down on the euro over recent months may now be easing, there are plenty of other reasons to expect the currency to fall further. Indeed, our forecast that the euro... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would QE be so bad for the euro? The experience in both Japan and the US shows that the adoption of quantitative easing by the ECB would not necessarily do lasting harm to the euro. But we still expect the currency to fall a lot... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Estonia given green light to join EMU Today’s announcement that Estonia will join the euro-zone owes much to the huge fiscal tightening enacted last year. But EMU-entry will not be a panacea for the economy, and we expect GDP to contract... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People's Bank signalling a policy shift? Contrary to some suggestions doing the rounds in the media and the markets, China’s central bank has not shifted its position on exchange rate policy in its latest quarterly report. 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will sterling markets fare after the election? We are not convinced that a hung parliament in the UK would now be such bad news for all sterling assets. Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s general election, we think 10-year gilt yields will drop to... 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone survive? The euro-zone should stay together for another few years at least. But the region’s periphery requires an excruciating competitive adjustment that might well plunge it into depression. Meanwhile... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could a strong pound be a post-election headache? Analysis of the likely behaviour and influence of the exchange rate after the election has tended to focus on the possibility of a further sharp depreciation in the event of a hung parliament. But... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can Czech policymakers do about the koruna? Attempts by Czech policymakers to stem the recent rise in the koruna may have some effect at the margin, but we doubt that they will do much to fundamentally alter the value of the currency. In the... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets fail to buy into hung parliament “nightmare” (Apr 10) Much has been made of the implications for the markets of a hung parliament outcome after the general election on May 6th. But we doubt that the absence of a decisive victory for any of the main... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
