UK Economics Update Sterling's telling softness Sterling’s relative weakness during the latest bout of market volatility is a telling indication of the growing concerns about the health of the UK economy. But the falling pound could itself damage... 18th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much further will the dollar fall? This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who's most afraid of a weaker dollar? The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bond market is priced for recession (Mar-08) While much has been made of the recent rise in the markets’ inflation expectations, less attention has fallen on just how pessimistic the markets have become on the outlook for activity. Indeed, the... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Slovakia: kicking out the koruna We expect Slovakia to be given the go-ahead to join the euro-zone from January next year, despite concerns over mounting medium-term inflationary pressures. This should give a renewed impetus to... 26th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the top on euro-dollar The recent stabilisation of the dollar against the euro – despite aggressive cuts in US interest rates and growing fears of a US recession – has encouraged speculation that the decline in the US... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Exporters' greed may prevent the pound from boosting growth Early signs that UK exporters are using the fall in the pound to boost their profit margins rather than their competitiveness could mean that the lower exchange rate does not lead to the rebalancing... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack The slower rates are cut, the further they will fall (Feb-08) The markets are increasingly coming round to our view that the slower the MPC cuts interest rates, the further interest rates might eventually have to fall. While the markets’ expectations for where... 11th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the strong pound decade over? Sterling’s continued weakness even as interest rate expectations have moved back in its favour could reflect growing concerns over the fundamental health of the UK economy and hinder the Monetary... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Money markets move back towards normal (Jan 08) The recent injections of liquidity by central banks appear to have played a major role in pushing interbank interest rates back towards more normal levels. Three month LIBOR in the UK is now just 10... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the dollar and euro? We have been long-term bears of the dollar and expect further falls against Asian currencies, including the yen, in 2008. But after the sharp declines in recent years, the outlook against the euro is... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling pound won't do the MPC's job for it The recent sharp fall in the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate represents a loosening of monetary conditions in the UK economy. However, it is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee... 7th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: the end of a golden era? There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term... 4th July 2007 · 1 min read
