Asia Economics Update Asian currencies set to rise further The shift to de-peg the renminbi against the US dollar, announced on Saturday, will probably bring further FX rate appreciation across Asia, even though China is likely to move slowly from now on. The... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s decline to resume before long On the face of it, the fact that the euro last week saw its strongest weekly gain in nine months might suggest that the worst is past for the single currency. The improvement could partly have... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi reform restarts Proof will come in the next day or two, but the decision of the People’s Bank to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform almost certainly means the renminbi’s hard dollar peg is at an end. 20th June 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to scale back currency intervention The SNB’s hints that it will scale back its currency intervention suggest that the franc is set to appreciate more sharply and interbank interest rates should rise back towards the Bank’s target of 0... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Fading recovery prospects darken market outlook Since our last Markets Analyst, there have been growing signs that the global economic recovery, and the UK’s recovery in particular, is built on fragile foundations that will buckle under the weight... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Do wage increases reduce the need for currency appreciation? Rapid wage increases may play a big role in rebalancing China’s economy in the years ahead. In the short term though, they are no substitute for nominal currency appreciation. 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Franc’s surge a reminder of fragility of East Europe’s banks The recent surge in the Swiss franc has rekindled fears over the health of Eastern Europe’s banking sector. As it happens, the bulk of foreign currency lending in the region has taken place in euros... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The implications of Europe's sovereign debt crisis for the US 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken without need for intervention Speculation that the elevation of Finance Minister Kan to the premiership makes FX intervention more likely is a pretty poor reason to sell the Japanese currency. Nonetheless, we do expect political... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Eastern European currencies buck a weaker euro? We expect currencies across most of Emerging Europe to weaken further against both the euro and US dollar over the next year or so. The Romanian leu looks likely to be the worst performer, while the... 4th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for sterling? Our forecast that the euro will fall to parity with the dollar next year, combined with a smaller decline in the pound from $1.47 to around $1.40, would mean a further rise in the euro-sterling... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets shrug off hung parliament (Jun 10) As we expected, markets largely shrugged off the heightened political uncertainty of the last month, suggesting that a hung parliament outcome to the general election was already priced in. Instead... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia to keep going its own way (Q2 10) We expect the world recovery will lose momentum in 2010-11 but do not anticipate that the recent turmoil in the markets will derail the global upswing. The implication for Asia is that the regional... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro unlikely to solve the region’s woes On the face of it, the recent weakening of the euro should provide the euro-zone’s external sector with a boost over the coming months. But given that exporters have tended previously to respond to a... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
