Global Markets Update Is quantitative easing so bad for the dollar? The markets’ initial reaction to the Fed’s decision to step up its policy of quantitative easing, including a new plan to buy Treasury securities, has been to sell the dollar. We do not expect this... 19th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets grasp the grim reality Financial markets appear finally to have grasped the severity of the economic outlook over the last few months. The steep falls in equity prices, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate have left... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What can be done to stop the rot? We think a pan-regional IMF or EU-led bailout fund offers the best way out of the bout of indiscriminate selling that has gripped markets in the Emerging Europe in recent weeks. But for now, at least... 6th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the lower pound stave off deflation? The sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate does not preclude the danger that a short bout of deflation driven by commodity prices later this year will be followed by a broader and longerlasting... 2nd March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts poised to rally further on adoption of QE (Feb 09) The bond market sell-off since the start of the year has stemmed from hope that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will trigger economic recovery and prevent deflation. Concern about the market’s... 17th February 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss bank losses point to severe recession The record loss reported by UBS yesterday provides further support for our long-held view that the Swiss economy will suffer heavily from its reliance on the financial services sector. This suggests... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China still the US Treasury’s best friend? The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Spike in bond yields should not last (Jan 09) Over the past month, global bond yields have risen somewhat in response to growing concerns about the outlook for public finances and sovereign credit risk. Nonetheless, we continue to think that the... 21st January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bond yields plunge (Dec 08) Over the past month, global short-dated bond yields have plunged as the markets have come round to our view that official interest rates in the UK and elsewhere will drop to record lows. What’s more... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should China force a renminbi depreciation? A sizeable depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar would be provocative during a global slump and might do little to help China’s economy. 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should China force a renminbi depreciation? A sizeable depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar would be provocative during a global slump and might do little to help China’s economy. 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets pricing in only mild recession UK financial markets have responded strongly to the deterioration in the outlook for the domestic and global economies over recent months, with equity prices and bond yields both falling sharply... 20th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal boost and lower pound won't do the MPC's job The prospect of a fiscal boost in the forthcoming Pre-Budget Report and the recent sharp fall in the sterling exchange rate are both positive developments for the UK economy. But they will not prevent... 17th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC takes a bold step (Nov 08) The historic 150 basis point cut in interest rates in November shows that the MPC is facing up to the seriousness of the situation. And it is encouraging that three month LIBOR has fallen sharply in... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss franc’s appreciation supports case for hefty rate cuts The franc’s latest appreciation to a record high against the euro appears to reflect the weakness of the euro-zone economy more than Swiss domestic factors. But the franc’s strength is yet another... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
