Emerging Europe Economics Update Disappointing start to Q4 for the Russian economy While there are tentative signs that the agricultural sector is recovering from this summer’s drought, the raft of October activity data released this afternoon suggest that the Russian economy made a... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall further against the dollar We expect the Japanese yen to weaken further against the US dollar, to 90 next year and 100 in 2012 (from around 83 today), despite a steady grind higher in most other Asian currencies. In contrast to... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US already begun a “currency war”? The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Robust economic data boost market confidence Recent market movements suggest that investors have taken the robust economic data and the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold back from restarting quantitative easing (QE) at its... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning against the euro? The near 20% rise in the euro against the US dollar over the last six months has clearly not sat comfortably with our prediction back in May that the single currency would depreciate further and drop... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro defying gravity? The euro’s further rise certainly has not supported our forecast that it might eventually fall to parity against the dollar. The worries about peripheral debt that we had expected to drive the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the yen finally turned? Now that the markets know the US Fed’s plans for additional QE, and these are presumably largely priced into the currency markets, any additional easing from the Bank of Japan will have a greater... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America's impossible trinity The so-called ‘impossible trinity’ suggests that the only way that governments in Latin America can resist further currency appreciation is to either impose strict capital controls or align monetary... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: 'Currency war' has only just begun A raft of measures announced by the Colombian authorities late last week are unlikely to have much impact on the value of the peso. In the absence of a drop in commodity prices, capital inflows are... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Colombia win its currency war? The recent rapid appreciation of the Colombian peso bears all the hallmarks of so-called ‘Dutch Disease’. But while policymakers are rightly concerned about the implications for the competitiveness of... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the economy already rolling over into recession? The surge in the yen and recent weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector have raised concerns that Japan may already be sliding back into recession. In contrast, our view is that the near... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will the weaker dollar do for US corporate profits? The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rapid renminbi rise will not be sustained China is again responding to foreign pressure with a surge in the renminbi. But a coming slowdown in exports, a desire to limit the predictability of the renminbi’s rise and, possibly, a rebound of... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A glimmer of hope The seemingly relentless appreciation of the yen against the dollar has not caused quite the degree of panic in Japan’s equity markets that might have been anticipated. In part this is because the yen... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand will still probably tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) announces its policy rate decision on Wednesday. The repo rate has been hiked at the past two meetings, and we expect another 25bp increase to 2.0%. The surge in the baht... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
