Japan Economics Update Yen likely to weaken further in wake of disaster The economic and market impact of the terrible tragedy that has hit Japan will depend partly on the amount of the damage but also on who pays the bills. A large share of the cost will probably have to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar continues to languish Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Venezuela approaching crunch time? While the rest of Latin America is experiencing bumper capital inflows, Venezuela is gripped by a dollar drought. With President Chavez seeking re-election in December 2012, there is a growing risk... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could SDRs challenge the dollar? When G20 Finance Ministers hold their first meeting of the year this weekend, one of the issues on the agenda will be reform of the International Monetary System, including a proposal to promote the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How quickly is Russia moving towards a free float? The pace at which Russian monetary policy is shifting from a regime centred on targeting the exchange rate to a regime based on targeting inflation remains unclear, but our calculations of FX... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB & rising euro pose new threats Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rearranging the deckchairs In light of our growing concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy and the risks of a fiscal crisis, we are cutting our end-2011 forecast for the Nikkei 225 from 10,750 to 9,000. This might appear... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update "Currency war" still phoney but China tensions spreading The Brazilian government’s accusations that the US is engaged in a “currency war” are always good for a headline but continue to have little foundation. China’s manipulation of the renminbi remains a... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to outperform market expectations in 2011 President Hu Jintao’s visit to the US later in January will draw attention back to the renminbi. We believe that markets are underestimating the likely pace of appreciation over the year ahead. In... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Three challenges for 2011 Policymakers in the region will face three challenges this year: keeping inflation under control, preventing asset price bubbles from building and managing currency appreciation. All are consequences... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China save the euro? Despite some hopes to the contrary, China is unlikely to be able or willing to do much to solve the debt crisis in the euro-zone. China was presumably already buying a significant amount of peripheral... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile joins the 'currency war' The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) will begin intervening in the currency market tomorrow in a bid to weaken the peso. But while the peso has fallen by 5% against the dollar today, history suggests that... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank signals more rate hikes to come The Swedish Riksbank responded to the recent strong economic data by raising interest rates today for the fourth time since July. But while further rate hikes are inevitable, we expect monetary policy... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets reassess outlook for monetary policy The continued run of positive data on the UK’s economic recovery has led markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Markets now expect official interest rates to rise by around 1% over the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets become more optimistic on recovery On the whole, financial markets have become increasingly optimistic about the prospects for the UK’s recovery. Interest rate expectations have begun to rise again and equities have rebounded, while... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
