UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s election rally? The pound’s recent climb to a four month high against the euro has revived memories of sterling’s major appreciations ahead of the last two changes of government back in 1979 and 1997. We do not... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sound as a pound? Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the past twelve months. This time last year it was at a multidecade low on a real trade-weighted basis. But the pound’s fortunes have improved since then and... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro support fading Recent developments support our view that the euro will come under renewed downward pressure in the coming months. With concerns about Greece mounting, economic prospects deteriorating compared to the... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How competitive is Emerging Europe? While the worst of the recession in Emerging Europe has passed, a fundamental lack of competitiveness will hold back the recovery in much of the region. Poland and Turkey stand out as two notable... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fiscal concerns trouble bond markets (Dec 09) The Chancellor’s projections for borrowing and debt in the Pre-Budget Report failed to reassure markets that the public finances are back on a path to fiscal sustainability. In response, gilt yields... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is “printing money” so bad for the dollar? It is often assumed that the Fed’s monetary expansion has been unambiguously bad news for the dollar and could eventually lead to a collapse in the US currency. The reality is more complicated. We... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still little evidence of a sterling boost As highlighted by this week’s dismal trade figures, evidence of a boost from the lower level of sterling is conspicuous by its absence. There remain few signs that the drop in the pound is either... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Inflation worries will eventually prove misplaced Markets have continued to respond reasonably positively to the further signs of recovery in the global and UK economies. But concerns are starting to emerge that central banks may leave policy... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus How long will Hong Kong’s dollar peg survive? The evidence linking sharp asset price moves in Hong Kong to its tight dollar peg is weaker than many think. With the peg in place, asset price bubbles are a threat for the future. But a shift to an... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning bearish on the yen The yield on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) has risen sharply in recent weeks. Admittedly, yields have risen in other countries. But an additional factor has been concern that the new government is... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The macroeconomic implications of the lower dollar 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bounce in gilt yields may not last (Nov 09) Gilt yields have risen over the last month, with 10-year yields close to half a percentage point higher than a month ago. The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision at its meeting in November to extend... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
