China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A pivotal moment for relations with the US? The US Treasury’s upcoming announcement on whether China is a “currency manipulator” might not be the pivotal moment some are expecting. That doesn’t mean that a quarrel over the exchange rate can be... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Lower pound still not helping much Last week’s trade figures probably won the prize for most disappointing economic data so far this year. Although the snow may have been partly to blame, there has been a deteriorating trend in the... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Central banks cut back on liquidity provisions (Mar 10) Over the last month, central banks have continued to withdraw some of the unconventional liquidity provisions offered to the money markets. The US Federal Reserve raised its discount rate from 0.50%... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where next for the renminbi? Recent comments from People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan make it likely that the renminbi’s dollar peg will remain in place a while longer. When it is loosened, the pace of gains will be slow. 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Fiscal worries weigh on markets The combination of a sluggish recovery in the economy and concerns over the UK’s fiscal position and credit rating has weighed on UK asset markets over recent weeks. The rally in the equity market has... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze should eventually support the pound Fears that the general election will result in a hung parliament may continue to weigh on the pound in the coming weeks. But the prospect of a major fiscal squeeze under any form of government should... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek tragedy to temper EMU expansion Recent events in Greece have fundamentally weakened the economic arguments in favour of a rapid expansion of the euro-zone to include EU member states in the East. Political appetite for euro-area... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker euro to offer exporters little respite The latest news from the euro-zone external sector suggests that although exports are expanding strongly, the strong euro is taking its toll on the sector. The recent weakening of the euro is... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Upswings to stay impressive for a while (Q1 10) The trade-dependent economies will eventually see slower GDP growth later this year and in 2011 as the global upswing loses momentum. But Asia’s rebound will not come to a complete halt and growth, by... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Weak recovery pushes interest rates lower (Feb 10) Concerns about the fragility of the domestic recovery have recently outweighed those regarding the sustainability of the UK’s public finances and the Bank of England’s decision to pause its programme... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right move Vietnam today devalued its currency by 3%. Only the timing of the move was a surprise. The devaluation is necessary and reduces the risk of a disorderly currency decline. Nevertheless, more... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets misjudge the interest rate outlook (Jan 10) Markets continue to expect official interest rates in the UK to be raised from around the middle of 2010. No doubt the recent pick-up in inflation – as well as speculation that the Bank’s programme of... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
