Europe Economics Focus What are the lessons of historical devaluations for Greece? The experience of economies which have undergone major currency depreciations in the past suggests that a return to the drachma would kick start a Greek economic recovery. Provided that Greece adopted... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Safe-haven demand for UK assets eases The European Central Bank’s proclamation that it is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral euro-zone government bonds has prompted safe-haven demand for gilts to ease and sterling to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s smaller savings surplus little threat to Treasuries One popular misconception is that China’s reinvestment of its “surplus” savings has directly depressed long-term US Treasury yields. If this were true, why have yields remained so low in recent years... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospect of QE3 whets investors' appetite The prospect of further unconventional policy stimulus from the Fed and a summer lull in the euro-zone crisis supported risky assets in August. Nonetheless, we expect any extra boost to prices from... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bond purchases on hold, but other measures possible We expect the ECB to disappoint markets this week with its plans for peripheral government bond purchases. President Mario Draghi is likely to state that such purchases will be limited and that they... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary shift signals bank FX concerns In the past few months, the Turkish central bank has added to its policy toolkit by allowing banks to hold foreign currencies and gold in place of lira as required reserves for their lira liabilities... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Talk of return to Gold Standard to come to nothing Reports that the Republican Party will call for the establishment of a commission to examine the case for restoring the link between the dollar and gold may be another positive for the price of the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Lacklustre growth to weigh on UK assets While UK equity and gilt prices have both increased over the last few months, we doubt that further significant price rises are likely over the coming quarters. Equities seem destined to struggle as... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Dragged down by weaker global economy The next 12 months are shaping up to be the most challenging since the 2008-09 global financial crisis for Latin America. A combination of weaker external demand, falling commodity prices and tighter... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next big move for the ruble will be down The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update FX intervention back on the agenda as industry struggles Barely three months have passed since a bout of global market jitters sent policymakers scrambling to protect their currencies, but in some countries the pendulum has already swung back towards... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in Canadian dollar won't last We doubt that the recent rally in the Canadian dollar to above parity against its US counterpart will last. Admittedly, the safe haven status of the currency may continue to support it in the near... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian political tensions put FX reserve buffers at risk The National Bank of Romania (NBR) appears to have stepped up intervention in the FX market to defend the leu following the recent bout of political turmoil. For now, FX reserve coverage looks... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation back on investors’ agenda Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in July serve as a reminder that devaluation of the pound remains a real and likely prospect. 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real pay finally to start rising Real pay is finally about to start rising again. But the need for households to repair their balance sheets will keep the recovery in consumer spending modest. 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
