Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM currencies are cheap and which are expensive? Within the emerging world, the currencies of Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and Turkey look most overvalued. By contrast, the currencies of most Asian economies, including China, look undervalued. 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe haven demand to support the yen through 2013 Expectations of more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan have weakened the yen, even though there is already little practical difference between its stance and that of the Fed. On... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What should we make of Korea’s strengthening currency? The Korean won has been one of Asia’s strongest-performing currencies this year, which has prompted speculation of a shift in Korea’s exchange rate policy and worries that currency appreciation is... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF deal closer, but devaluation still an issue Media reports suggesting that the Egyptian government could reach a deal with the IMF within the next few months is clearly good news. However, we have been here before and we suspect the issue of... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A renewed struggle in store for risky assets The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weight A declaration by a US administration that China is a “currency manipulator” may have no immediate consequences but it would open the door to more substantive trade sanctions against China in future. 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Devaluation of Venezuelan bolivar on the cards for 2013 The fact that over half of FX transactions in Venezuela have already been forced onto the black market – where the bolivar trades at much weaker rates – means that the country has already seen a sharp... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the reform boost for Indian markets last? The recent burst of reforms has buoyed India’s equity and currency markets, and some further measures are possible in the coming weeks. However, the country’s fundamental outlook has not improved... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Bumpy road ahead Although Asia will not be immune from the continuing crisis in the euro-zone and weak global demand, healthy fundamentals and plenty of scope for policy easing mean growth should hold up relatively... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Sep.) The combination of an improvement in political conditions and rising hopes of an IMF deal has boosted bond and equity markets in Egypt. But at the same time, the return of foreign investors will... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
