Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar-denominated bonds continue to languish Dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds underperformed similarly-rated US dollar corporate bonds significantly in the recent sell-off. Most of this underperformance has not been unwound... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Calm after the storm Financial markets in Africa were relatively calm in July following the wide-scale sell-off in June. Currencies, bonds and equities have rallied, although bond yields remain above the lows seen at the... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets recovering from June’s sell-off Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their losses from the sell-off last month. Looking ahead, we see some scope for gains in the region’s equities and currencies over the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro led to convergence or divergence? The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyond We are deeply sceptical of the argument that the renminbi now needs to weaken to reach its market value. On the contrary, we continue to expect it to edge higher this year and make further gains in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak rand to prevent interest rate cuts The ongoing weakness of the South African rand means that, despite the sluggish pace of economic growth, there is little room for the Reserve Bank to loosen monetary policy. We have taken out our... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling back in the spotlight Sterling hit the headlines again last week as it weakened further against the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, last week’s slightly weaker economic data suggested that GDP growth in Q2 might not surge as... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound could play a greater role in policy under Carney Following Mr Carney’s arrival at the Bank of England, the pound this week touched its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. The fact that the new Governor seems to have had no qualms about... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Overseas developments continue to drive the gilt market The fairly modest impact of the MPC’s initial stab at ‘forward guidance’ on gilt yields has cast doubt over whether a formal commitment to keep monetary policy loose will do much to lower gilt yields... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Some tentative signs of stabilisation Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to write off the pound The recent weakness in the pound against the US dollar has produced the usual flurry of headlines about an imminent sterling crisis. However, while the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian industry still has a competitiveness problem The recent depreciation of the peso does not appear to have fully reversed the loss of competitiveness suffered by Colombian industry during the past decade. As a result, while the worst of the... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
