Global Markets Update What next for the yen? Despite the hype about “bold moves” and “unlimited easing”, the markets have been underwhelmed by the announcements made by the Bank of Japan today. This muted reaction makes sense, as there was... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gathering momentum? Asian growth looks to have picked up late last year and is likely to fare well in the near term. However, growth in 2013-14 is unlikely to be strong due to lacklustre external demand and structural... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sharp fall in the pound wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing Concerns are building that sterling is on the brink of a sharp fall. While certainly possible, it is not as inevitable as some appear to assume. And it might not be such a bad thing in any case. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble flexibility is for real Some commentators are starting to question the extent to which Russia has moved towards greater currency flexibility in recent years. We see little to justify these doubts. Improving global sentiment... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK equities rally despite struggling economy The FTSE 100 has climbed to its highest level since May 2008 as expectations for global economic growth have improved. Some have suggested that a “great rotation” of funds out of safe to risky assets... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts (Jan. 13) We have reviewed our key market forecasts. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. While we still expect government bond yields in the major developed economies to remain very low... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro could rise further - unhelpfully While the euro may well strengthen further in the near term, we still expect it to weaken again later in the year as worries over the currency union resurface. In the meantime, though, the strong... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy risks in Hungary to spell further forint weakness Amid the public spat over who exactly is responsible for the recent sell-off in the Hungarian forint, the point that is being overlooked is that local factors, rather than global risk appetite, now... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall further as growth falters Record levels of foreign direct investment into the commodities sector suggest that Dutch Disease will continue to drag on the Colombian economy this year. We expect policymakers to react with another... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean peso to end the year below 500/US$ A strong start to the year for the Chilean peso has led to renewed speculation that the central bank will be forced to intervene in FX markets to weaken the currency. While intervention is possible... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How far and how quickly will the Egyptian pound fall? With the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosening its grip on the pound, the key question is whether the authorities will succeed in overseeing an “orderly” devaluation of the currency. If an IMF deal... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Scottish independence mean for the remaining UK? We think that Scotland’s exit from the Union would be unlikely to benefit the rest of the UK and could even represent a net economic cost. The UK would probably retain some of the disadvantages of... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of developments in Venezuela The recent rally in Venezuelan government bonds, on the back of speculation that the deteriorating health of President Hugo Chávez will lead to a shift towards more market friendly policies, stands in... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Softening of Basel liquidity rules not such a big deal The expansion in the range of assets that can be used to meet the new liquidity requirements under Basel III, combined with their slower implementation, is a small positive for the banking sector, but... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
