Global Markets Update “Abe trade” losing its appeal The partial rebound in the yen and latest wobble in the Nikkei may simply be a pause in the trends of weakness in the Japanese currency and associated strength in equities, which would not be unusual... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for sterling? We think the biggest falls in the pound may now be behind us. Granted, Moody’s decision to strip the UK of its AAA rating drove the currency down even further early on Monday. But sterling was fairly... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE equities up on recovery hopes Equities in the UAE have rallied over the past few months on hopes that the economic recovery is gathering pace. Elsewhere in the region, the Egyptian pound has stabilised recently following the CBE’s... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equity market rally loses steam Following a strong start to the year, the rally in sub-Saharan African equity markets has lost a little steam in the past few weeks. Nevertheless, the MSCI frontier Africa index is still up by around... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step-up rhetoric while EM currencies fall Talk of “currency wars” remains rife among EM policymakers but most EM currencies have actually weakened over the past month. This partly reflects growing investor fears of official intervention, but... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity rally stutters This is the first edition of a new publication for clients of our China service. The China Markets Monitor will provide a monthly summary of developments in financial markets in mainland China and... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update G20 doubles up on familiar messages The fall-out from an extended period of monetary expansion in the US and Japan will continue to ripple around the global financial system, not least in the form of capital flows to emerging markets... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fears over a return to "original sin" are overdone An improvement in global risk appetite and a sharp fall in emerging market bond yields over the past few months have led to a flurry of planned eurobond issues from countries in sub-Saharan Africa... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 'Currency wars' pose dilemma for Chilean policymakers Chile’s Central Bank faces a difficult balancing act between cooling buoyant domestic demand, which suggests a need for tighter monetary policy, and taming a strong currency, which is already weighing... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export split reinforces concerns of “currency wars” The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's capital controls could be a further drag on growth The depreciation of the Egyptian pound has slowed in recent weeks, but only because of a tightening of capital controls. If these remain in place for any length of time, they could present another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A sceptical view on "currency wars" Talk of “currency wars” continues to dominate the headlines despite the efforts of the G7. Indeed, the latest official comments appear to have added to the confusion. This Update summarises the six... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
